Simulation Based Decision Processes for Territorial Security

Abstract

peer reviewedPlanning for regional security and crisis management is identified as a multi layered system. Delays, however, have manifested themselves as a common property of such systems. This means that an action on one level will cause surprising impacts on the others, but first after some retardation. Fortunately, with help of anticipatory modelling and computer simulation it is possible to demonstrate the effects of those complex inter level interactions. As an example, it is found that longer delays tend to increase the instability of the system, with great fluctuations as a consequence. An anticipation factor, however, may help to counteract those fluctuations