Participación en el Seminario: Estrategias de adaptación verdes para la seguridad hídrica del corredor seco centroamericano. Trabajo presentado: Escenarios climáticos e impactos de las sequías y otros eventos hidrometeorológicos en el Corredor Seco Centroamericano (CSC) (E. Alfaro y P. Pérez). Centro Mesoamericano de Desarrollo Sostenible del Trópico Seco (CEMEDE), Sede Regional Chorotega, Campus Nicoya, Universidad Nacional, 26 de marzo, 2019.Predicting rainfall during April-May-June (AMJ), as the first peak of the rainy season in the
Central American isthmus, is very important since it has been observed that more or less
humid conditions during AMJ tend to be preceded by early or late starts of the rainy season.
A late onset of rainfall, for example, followed by drier than normal conditions during
MJ and by a subsequent period of intense summer or heatwave, can significantly affect
key socioeconomic sectors in the isthmus such as hydropower generation, drinking water
supply or agriculture. In this presentation, data from 162 rainfall stations were used to
construct predictive models for MJ as the first peak of the rainy season, using Canonical
Correlation Analysis (CCA). The aspects to predict during MJ are rainfall accumulation and
the Normalized Precipitation Index (NPI) in Central America. The sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies observed in the 63°N - 10°S and 152° E - 15°W domain were used as
predictors. The CCA models, using the SST anomalies in February, show a good predictive
ability of the accumulations and the NPI during MJ, in an important region of Central
America. The results showed that warmer (cold) conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific
SST anomalies, along with colder (warmer) conditions in the North Tropical Atlantic
during February, tend to be correlated with drier (wet) periods during the next MJ bimester
in virtually the entire isthmus. This suggests that the SST could modulate rainfall
during MJ in Central America by influencing the position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence
Zone and the magnitude of trade winds.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B8-766]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805- B9-454]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-286]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-507]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físic
