Does regional development explain international youth mobility? Spatial patterns and global/local determinants of the recent emigration of young Italians

Abstract

In this essay, we tackle the issue of the international mobility of young Italians in relation to regional disparities. Our intention is to determine if and to what extent a relationship exists between regional development and the international mobility of young people. We analyze the international migration of Italian citizens aged 15-34 who left the country in the period 2010-2017 using several variables that reflect the varying conditions found in different NUTS 3-level regions in terms of economic dynamism, labor-market efficiency, social fragility, educational underdevelopment and spatial peripherality. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models show that the international mobility of young Italians is very much dependent on local conditions and affected by spatial differences. It is greatest in the most economically dynamic areas of the country, in border regions and in metropolitan areas, with factors relating to spatial proximity and peripherality, imbalances in local labor markets, and paucity of human capital proving particularly significant