Paediatric guidance on diagnosis and treatment of urinary tract infections (UTIs) has in the past largely focused on identifying children with vesicoureteral reflux, thought to be at greatest risk of renal scarring. This practice has been questioned, specifically the accepted association between UTI and end-stage renal failure (ESRF) through renal scarring. The aim of this article is to ascertain whether we can predict with confidence the true level of risk that a child with a first-time UTI will subsequently develop ESRF attributable to UTI