Cardoso R. M. R.

Claude Lefèvre

Cramér H.

De Vylder F. E.

Dickson D. C. M.

Gerber H. U.

Grandell J.

Grimmett G. R.

Kaas R.

Konstantopoulos T.

Panjer H. H.

Picard Ph.

Rullière D.

Seal H. L.

Shiu E. S. W.

Stéphane Loisel

Takács L.

English

Lefèvre, Claude

Loisel, St.

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On finite-time ruin probabilities for classical risk models

International audienceThis paper is concerned with the problem of ruin in the classical compound binomial and compound Poisson risk models. Our primary purpose is to extend to those models an exact formula derived by Picard and Lefèvre (1997) for the probability of (non-)ruin within finite time. First, a standard method based on the ballot theorem and an argument of Seal-type provides an initial (known) formula for that probability. Then, a concept of pseudo-distributions for the cumulated claim amounts, combined with some simple implications of the ballot theorem, leads to the desired formula. Two expressions for the (non-)ruin probability over an infinite horizon are also deduced as corollaries. Finally, an illustration within the framework of Solvency II is briefly presented

Loisel, Stéphane

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On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models

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On Finite-time  Ruin Probabilities  for Classical Risk Models

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https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00168958

On finite-time ruin probabilities for classical risk models

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