The Impact Trajectory of Asteroid 2008 TC3

Abstract

Asteroid 2008 TC3 was the rst asteroid ever discovered before reaching Earth. By using the almost 900 astrometric observations acquired prior to impact we estimate the trajectory of 2008 TC3 and the ground-track of the impact location as a function of altitude. For a reference altitude of 100 km the impact location 3- formal uncertainty is a 1.4 km 0.15 km ellipse with a semimajor axis azimuth of 105. We analyze the contribution of modeling errors and nd that the second-order zonal harmonics of the Earth gravity eld moves the ground-track by more than 1 km and the location along the ground-track by more than 2 km. Non-zonal and higher order harmonics only change the impact prediction by less than 20 m. The contribution of the atmospheric drag to the trajectory of 2008 TC3 is at the numerical integration error level, a few meters, down to an altitude of 50 km. Integrating forward to lower altitudes and ignoring the break-up of 2008 TC3, the atmospheric drag causes an along-track error that can be as large as a few kilometers at sea level. The locations of the recovered meteorites is consistent with the computed ground-track