Mark Thyer, T. Micevski, George Kuczera, P. Coombe

Coombes, P.

Kuczera, G.

Micevski, T.

Thyer, M.

The Integrated Urban Water Management design paradigm has driven the need to predict urban water use dynamics at the household scale. The Behavioural End-use Stochastic simulator (BESS) fills the current gap by stochastic simulating individual end-uses (outdoor, shower, washing machine, toilet, tap etc) at the household scale at sub-daily time steps. The indoor component simulates differences in household size, uptake rates of water efficient appliances and diurnal variation in end-uses. The model matched observed end-use data. The outdoor component simulates the behavioural response of outdoor water use to rainfall and temperature. Evaluation using long-term multi-house outdoor water use data showed significant improvement in simulating observed variability (underestimation reduced from 56% to 8%) compared with existing approaches. The advantages of BESS for providing reliable estimates of mains water savings in IUWM scenarios and the design/operation of existing water distribution systems was discussed and will be evaluated in future research work

A behavioural approach to stochastic end use modelling

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