In barter exchanges, participants directly trade their endowed goods in a
constrained economic setting without money. Transactions in barter exchanges
are often facilitated via a central clearinghouse that must match participants
even in the face of uncertainty---over participants, existence and quality of
potential trades, and so on. Leveraging robust combinatorial optimization
techniques, we address uncertainty in kidney exchange, a real-world barter
market where patients swap (in)compatible paired donors. We provide two
scalable robust methods to handle two distinct types of uncertainty in kidney
exchange---over the quality and the existence of a potential match. The latter
case directly addresses a weakness in all stochastic-optimization-based methods
to the kidney exchange clearing problem, which all necessarily require explicit
estimates of the probability of a transaction existing---a still-unsolved
problem in this nascent market. We also propose a novel, scalable kidney
exchange formulation that eliminates the need for an exponential-time
constraint generation process in competing formulations, maintains provable
optimality, and serves as a subsolver for our robust approach. For each type of
uncertainty we demonstrate the benefits of robustness on real data from a
large, fielded kidney exchange in the United States. We conclude by drawing
parallels between robustness and notions of fairness in the kidney exchange
setting.Comment: Presented at AAAI1
