Physics education research has used quantitative modeling techniques to
explore learning, affect, and other aspects of physics education. However,
these studies have rarely examined the predictive output of the models, instead
focusing on the inferences or causal relationships observed in various data
sets. This research introduces a modern predictive modeling approach to the PER
community using transcript data for students declaring physics majors at
Michigan State University (MSU). Using a machine learning model, this analysis
demonstrates that students who switch from a physics degree program to an
engineering degree program do not take the third semester course in
thermodynamics and modern physics, and may take engineering courses while
registered as a physics major. Performance in introductory physics and calculus
courses, measured by grade as well as a students' declared gender and ethnicity
play a much smaller role relative to the other features included the model.
These results are used to compare traditional statistical analysis to a more
modern modeling approach.Comment: submitted to Physical Review Physics Education Researc
