Willaarts, Barbara

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Envisioning desirable pathways for the Indus Basin2 June 2018Systems Approachneeded!FORECAST …… fails in complex realitiesConsistent and coherent descriptions of alternative hypothetical futures that reflect different perspectives on past, present, and future developments, which can serve as a basis for action.Philippe van NottenNotten, P. van, 2006. Chapter 4 Scenario development: a typology of approaches, Published in Think Scenarios, Rethink Education, available at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/27/38/37246431.pdfScenariosExample: Millennium Ecosystem Assessmenthttps://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Scenarios.htmlEXTERNALScenariosINTERNALPathways,StrategiesChallengesTrade-offsSolutionsSynergiesPathways Elements & Spatial representationVIDEOBusiness as UsualGathering data, representing current situationDeveloping stakeholders’ pathwaysDevelopingmodel pathwaysprovide input forprovide feedbackand …CURRENTSITUATIONSTAKEHOLDERPATHWAYSMODELPATHWAYSSustainabilitySustainabilityDesirable future 1… revisions suggestionsis a basis forThanksCURRENT SITUATIONSTEP 12018 2050Desired Future PathwaySTEP 3DemandWATERAvailabilityENERGYDemandProductionLANDDemandAvailabilityFOODDemandProductionOutflowPrecipitationRunoffEvapotranspirationPopulationUrbanizationCURRENT SITUATIONSTEP 1CURRENT SITUATIONSTEP 12018 2050Business as Usual PathwaySTEP 22018 2050Desired Future PathwaySTEP 3STEP 4Robustness of PathwaysCURRENT SITUATIONSTEP 1Work in groups- Current state- infrastructure, - socio-economic factors, - policies- Main challenges Presentations of group results2018 2050Business as Usual PathwaySTEP 2Work in groups- use current state (previous step) as a reference- discuss changes under the current trends in:- infrastructure, - socio-economic factors, - policies- record changes:- on the map- on the timelinePresentations of group resultsBusiness as Usual PathwaySTEP 2Why do we need a vision? 

Envisioning desirable pathways for the Indus Basin

http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15441/1/180602_Barbara_Willaarts_Summary_Scenario_Development_Workshop.pdf

Envisioning desirable pathways for the Indus Basin

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)