Labour market condition in Italy during and after the financial crises: a segmented regression analysis approach of interrupted time series

Abstract

One of the most widely recognized indicators of the labour market condition is a rising unemployment rate. In Italy, after the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2012 European sovereign debt crisis, this indicator continuously increased over time until late 2014, after which it seems to happen a trend reversal. The aim of this paper is to assess the existence a significant trend reversal in the unemployment rate after 2014, by analysing quarterly data collected from the Italian National Institute of Statistics using a segmented regression analysis approach of interrupted time series. In particular, the analysis is carried out considering some subpopulations of interest, by stratifying unemployment rate for age groups, in order to examine youth unemployment, gender and macro-regions. Moreover, a focus is given to the analysis of the percentage of people Not Engaged in Education, Employment or Training, to provide a more in-depth analysis of the labour market