Burek, P.

Byers, E.

Havlik, P.

Kahil, T.

Krey, V.

Krisztin, T.

Langan, S.

Magnuszewski, P.

Mayor Rodriguez, B.

Obersteiner, M.

Pachauri, S.

Palazzo, A.

Poblete Cazenave, M.

Riahi, K.

Tang, T.

van Dijk, M.

Wada, Y.

Willaarts, B.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Integrated solutions for water, energy, and land nexus management the Zambezi Basin: stakeholder engagement and modeling3rd Zambezi Basin Stakeholders’ Forum: Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus for Socio-Economic Benefits in the Zambezi River Basin8-9 October 2018, Lilongwe, MalawiPalazzo A., van Dijk M., Willaarts B., Magnuszewski P., Mayor-Rodriguez B., Burek P., Kahil T., Tang T., Byers E., Pachauri S., Poblete-Cazenave M., Krisztin T., Riahi K., Krey V., Wada Y., Langan S., Obersteiner M., Havlik P.Contents• Background on Water-Energy-Land project– ISWEL• Zambezi River Basin stakeholderengagement• ISWEL nexus-tools• Next stepsISWEL project objectiveDevelop tools and capacities to support the Water-Energy-Land Nexus management at the global scale and in two transboundary basins: Indus and ZambeziISWEL Assessment Areas1.Global i. Vulnerability hotspotsii. Global solutions and pathways2.Basin level assessments (Indus and Zambezi) i. Integrated modeling of WEL ii. Stakeholder engagement-identification of basin nexus priorities, and co-design of future pathways3. Capacity building and knowledge disseminationi. Trainings for young researchers (e.g. YSSP) ii. Online tools and databases iii.Scientific publications and policy briefsStakeholder Process-ROADMAP Establish partnerships with entry points: national and basin organizationsMeeting 1: Warming UpIdentify priority needs from stakeholdersSeptember 2017Meeting 2: Scenario and Capacity Development WorkshopJuly 2018Meeting 3: Presentation of results and Capacity DevelopmentWorkshopMarch 2019Identify opportunities for continuing the collaboration  Beyond 2019ClimatechangeZambezi nexus: Literature review4 December 2017 6ONFood/Land Use SystemEnergy SystemWater SystemDecrease in water availability due to upstream irrigation expansionDeforestation due to increasing use of charcoal caused by limited access to electricityVariations across countries and sub-basins and impacts of climate changeIncrease in water demand for hydropower due to planned construction and expansionMESSAGEixWater demandPrecipitationRunoffDischargeGroundwaterrechargeGLOBIOM, EPIC CWatM Nexus modelling tools: sectoral tools linked through model inputs and outputs • Biophysical conditions and suitability• Updated with local datasets from stakeholders• Economic feedbacks from changes in prices of crop/land/water/energy • Regional and global trade of crops/energy • Development under future global change • Optimization methods to find solutionsWater demandLand cover change ZAM-ECHO 12131110987615243Linkage of grid based high resolution hydrological modelingto sub-basin/region based hydro-economic modeling and water quality modelingCatchment-scale with reduced form networkPreliminary results of nexus tools: modeling of water dischargePreliminary results for BAU: Water demand by sector, source and countryIn 2050, irrigation water will use > 80% of surface water withdrawalsWater demand for irrigation increases by 50%, but other sectors grow by 400% Domestic use Surfacewater Industrial use Surfacewater Irrig. GroundwaterIrrig. NonRenewable Irrig. SurfacewaterPreliminary results for BAU:Energy and water in the ZambeziGeneration remains water-dependentEnergy for water also grows – but is only 1% of total electricity supplyPreliminary results: Land use change in the ZambeziCroplandPrimary Forest Managed Forest Other natural landGrasslandShort rotation PlantationsISWEL Project TeamZambezi River Basin StakeholdersModel &,scenarios toolsInform about  Provide  Data and pathwaysProvide Feedback on resultsChallenges, solutions Inform aboutModel results & ScenariosProvide  Dev Capacities Tools for policy and investment support Tool development and stakeholder engagement: Two-way processSTEP 1STEP 2STEP 3STEP 4Current SituationBusiness as Usual PathwayDesired Future PathwaysRobustness of PathwaysWorkshop to understand and co-develop basin nexus pathways (July 2018, Harare) VIDEOhttps://vimeo.com/292929336Zambezi Basin Visions3 Desired Futures with 3 Priorities:EnvironmentSocietyEconomyVISION: ECONOMYDevelopment through cooperation and economic integrationZambezi has made the leap to become a competitive economy thanks to large scaleinvestments programs that contributed to secure access to key natural resources andfoster the physical and economic integration of the riparian countries.Key areas for development: ENERGY: Hydropower as the main source of electricity for urban and industrial activities. Solar and wind power replace charcoal in the rural areas FOOD/LAND: Intensification of agriculture mostly through the development of new irrigated areas and expansion of drip irrigation WATER: Water monitoring systems in place to control water availability/quality as well as floods/droughts. Inter-basin water transfers agreements (e.g. Congo) Expanded communication infrastructures (road, railway, air) Trade and Transboundary Cooperation Agreement VISION: SOCIETYInclusive development and cooperationThis leap has been made possible thanks to implementation of an ambitious transboundarycooperation plan, that includes joint investments to improve supply as well ascommunication infrastructures, and trade agreements. This mechanism of sharing costsand benefits allows countries to meet jointly their development targets for both urban andrural population.Key areas for development: ENERGY: Hydropower as the main source of electricity for urban/rural and industrial activities. Solar grids in the more remote areas.  FOOD/LAND: Large scale program to develop technical capacities and provide access to credit of small farmers.  WATER: Investments are oriented towards securing WASH and improved (surface) water use efficiency  Trade and Transboundary Cooperation Agreement VISION: ENVIRONMENT Healthy environment as a basis for prosperous economy and societyZambezi Basin has made the leap to become a competitive, equitable and green–basedeconomy: thanks to the deployment of a large-scale program that prioritize therehabilitation of degraded lands and the effective management and conservation of mostunique ecosystems. This investment to maintain green infrastructures constitutes the pillarover which eco-tourism economy flourishes, whose revenues are shared equitably amongstate countries and rural communities.Key areas for development: ENERGY: Increasing demands met through expansion of solar grids. Existing hydropower projects adapt their operations to secure environmental flows downstream.  FOOD/LAND: Investments into Climate SMART agriculture. Developing technical capacities and access to credit contributes to boost farms’ economy in the rural areas.  WATER: Groundwater potential is tapped to meet new growing demands. Efforts are also allocated to secure WASH and implement flood/drought management tools.  Environmental legislation enforced to reduce pollution and prevent deforestation upstreamNext StepsUntil end of 20181. Complete the nexus modeling tools and validate current tools using stakeholder feedback2. Quantify preliminary scenarios based on the outcomes of stakeholder workshops20191. Validation of scenarios and model results with stakeholders (first quarter)2. Second capacity building workshop on nexus tools (first quarter)3. Project final results (third quarter)4. Next steps for implementation in the Indus and other basinsSynergies and collaborations • ZAMCOM: Support the development of the Zambezi Strategic Plan (ZSP) through scenario and modeling process • World Bank CSIP Zambia: Assessment of agricultural pathways and strategies for Zambia to inform the national Climate Smart Investment Plan (CSIP)• Zambia Irrigation for Climate Resilience and Food Security Project (ZICRFS): Proposal submitted to CultiAf-2, to assess irrigation potential in Zambia, led by the Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) in Zambia • Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP): flagship program of IIASA, invite PhD students from the Zambezi regionPresentations and scientific publicationsConference presentations• Palazzo, A.  et al., Hotspots in land and water resource uses on the way toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, Impacts World 2017 Conference | 11-13th October 2017• Palazzo, A. et al., Future energy, food, and water trade-offs in the Zambezi river basin: A model analysis of Zambia, Global Food Security Conference | 3-6 December 2017• Van Dijk, M et al, Generating high-resolution national crop distribution, maps: Combining statistics, gridded data and surveys using an optimization approach, accepted for the ICAE 2018, Vancouver• Parkinson et al., Hydro-economic modeling of integrated solutions for the water-energy-land nexus in Africa, AGU Fall meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New Orleans• Burek et al., Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales – Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA’s Community Water Model, AGU Fall meeting, 11-15 December 2017, New OrleansScientific publications• Greve, P. et al. (2018). Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change.Earth System Dynamics 9 (1): 227-240. • Magnuszewski, P. et al. (2018). Exploring the Role of Relational Practices in Water Governance Using a Game-Based Approach. Water 10 (3): p. 346. • Kahil, T. et al. (2018) A continental-scale hydro-economic model for integrating water-energy-land nexus solutions. Water Resources Research. Under reviewThank you!For further questions, please contact:  • Amanda Palazzo: palazzo@iiasa.ac.at• Barbara Willaarts, Project Officer: willaart@iiasa.ac.at• Simon Langan, Project Lead: langan@iiasa.ac.at

Integrated solutions for water, energy, and land nexus management the Zambezi Basin: stakeholder engagement and modeling

http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15589/1/08102018_ZAMCOM_ISWEL.pdf

Integrated solutions for water, energy, and land nexus management the Zambezi Basin: stakeholder engagement and modeling

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)