Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Seasonal Predictions of the 2015 El Nino

Abstract

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission), allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts generated with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. Four distinct experiments are presented that include 1) freely evolving model SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS), relaxation to 2) climatological SSS (i.e. WOA13 SSS), 3) Aquarius, and 4) SMAP initialization. Coupled hindcasts are then generated from these initial conditions for March 2015. These forecasts are then validated against observations and evaluated with respect to the observed El Nino development