BCE Matematikai Közgazdaságtan és Gazdaságelemzés tanszék
Abstract
This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the
medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus
and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use crosscountry
growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital
inflows and credit booms