'Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)'
Doi
Abstract
Accurate electricity price forecasting is an alarming challenge for market participants and managers owing to high volatility of the electricity prices. Price forecasting is also the most important management goal for market participants since it forms the basis of maximizing profits. These markets are usually organized in power pools and administrated by the independent system operator (ISO). The aim of this study is to examine the performance of asymmetric neuro-fuzzy network models for day-ahead electricity price forecasting in the ISO New England market. The implemented model has been developed with two alternative defuzzification models. The first model follows the Takagi–Sugeno–Kang scheme, while the second the traditional centre of average method. A clustering scheme is employed as a pre-processing technique to find out the initial set and adequate number of clusters and ultimately the number of rules in the network. Simulation results corresponding to the minimum and maximum electricity price indicate that the proposed network architectures could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy compared to alternative learning-based scheme
