Spatial distribution of votes in US presidential elections since 2004

Abstract

Geografija izbora u hrvatskoj znanstvenoj zajednici nije značajno zastupljena kao predmet istraživanja, a posebice nedostaje radova o prostornoj komponenti američkih predsjedničkih izbora. Analizirani su različiti faktori i njihov utjecaj na prostornu distribuciju glasova na američkim predsjedničkim izborima. Faktori koji su odabrani uključuju: rasnu strukturu, dobno-spolno strukturu, urbano-ruralne različitosti, religiju i dohodak. Analiza je pokazala da neki od navedenih faktora snažnije utječu na prostornu distribuciju glasova, uz napomenu da je rasna struktura temeljno ishodište promatranja prostorne distribucije glasova te je hijerarhijski iznad ostalih promatranih faktora. Osobe istog rasnog podrijetla uglavnom imaju slične izborne preferencije, a i ostali faktori većinom ovise o istoj. U radu je također prikazana i važnost swing država, naposve važnost swing glasača unutar swing država.Electoral geography is not significantly represented research topic in the Croatian scientific community and particularly, there is a lack of works on the spatial component of US presidential elections. This thesis analyses various factors and their influence on spatial distribution of votes in US presidential elections. Selected factors include: racial structure, age-gender structure, urban-rural diversity, religion and income. The analysis has shown that some of the factors mentioned above have a greater influence on the spatial distribution of the votes, with the notion that the racial structure is the starting point for observing the spatial distribution of votes and is hierarchically above the other observed factors. People of the same racial origin mostly have similar electoral preferences, and the other factors mostly depend on the race. The paper also shows the importance of swing states, highlighting the importance of swinging voters within the swing states