Visser, Martien

March 2015 analysis Renewable Energy in The Netherlands created by professor B. M. Visser.Published on EnTranCe website

Hanze UAS repository

Renewable Energy in The Netherlands March  2015  Dr. Martien Visser   Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration  Hanze University of Applied Sciences  Groningen  Partner of the Energy Academy Europe   E-mail: b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl   This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates.  Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided.  Mar 15     Page 2     Electricity production by Solar Energy was 21% higher than in March 2014  Electricity production by wind energy was 40% higher than in March 2014  A capacity of 62 MW of wind and 30 MW of solar PV was added in March 2015  Power imports into the Netherlands were 65% lower than in previous year  LNG imports increased by 400% compared to March 2014 (sheet 56)  Coal fired power generation increased by 20% compared to last year  In March 2015, CO2 emissions were 8% higher compared to last year  The fraction renewable energy was 4.0% compared to 4.1% in March 2014  A solar eclipse occurred on March 20 (sheet 54)  A partial black-out occurred on March 27 (sheet 55)  March 2015 In a Nutshell Mar 15     Page 3    •  March 2015 data   •  Monthly profiles •  Monthly data •  Hourly data •  Miscellaneous Content Mar 15     Page 4    SELECTED  ENERGY DATA FROM MARCH 2015 Mar 15     Page 5    Final Energy Demand March 2015 Energy is used for many different purposes. In March, the most important applications were heating/gas (29.7 TWh) and transport (27.5 TWh). Final energy demand, including sources that do not contribute to national CO2 targets, was about 80 TWh. Renewables are given by comparison. Mar 15     Page 6    29.712.8 11.3 9.96.53.9 3.4 2.8 2.405101520253035Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock*Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy*March 2015TWhSources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, etc.., own analyses*estimated**excl. gas&coal-to-powerFinal Energy Demand March 2015 In March 2015, gas consumption was higher than last year, due to lower winter temperatures. Energy used for bunkering and feedstock is estimated to be lower than previous year. Mar 15     Page 7    2.90.5-0.20.4-1.6-0.40.1 -0.1 0.1-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.0Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock*Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy*March 2015 versus March 2014TWhSources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses*estimated**excl. gas&coal-to-powerCO2 Emissions March 2015 The national CO2 emission in March 2015, excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation, has been estimated at 14,8 Mton. This was 8% higher than in March 2014 , primarily caused by more gas consumption, more coal utilization, and lower power imports. Mar 15     Page 8    5.33.6 3.24.01.81.1 0.9 1.00.00.30123456Mton CO2 March 2015*do not contribute to the national CO2 target** excl. gas & coal to powerSources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, RIVM, CE-Delft, own analysesWind power increased by 62 MW last month, while the estimated increase in solar energy was 30 MW. The first 800 MW part of a new coal fired power station at Eemshaven has come on stream. Power  Generation Capacity March 2015 Mar 15     Page 9    13728664329515211175 492040008000120001600020000Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar NuclearSources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analysesMW March 2015Power Supplies March 2015 In March 2015, power consumption in 2014 was 9.9 TWh, 4% higher than in March 2014. Imports decreased by 23%, exports increased by 50%. The usage of coal for power generation increased by 20% y-o-y. In March, the average contribution from renewables to the power supplies was 10.7%. Mar 15     Page 10    4.23.40.660.07 0.36 0.370.600.01.02.03.04.05.06.0NatGas Coal Wind solar-PV Biomass Nuclear Net importsSources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analysesTWh March 2015SELECTED  MONTHLY PROFILES  (using daily data) Mar 15     Page 11    Daily power demand shows a week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding gas demand for power) is mainly used for the heating market and affected by ambient temperature.  Mar 15     Page 12    Gas and Power Demand     March 2015 0200400600800100012001400160018001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarPower Gas*March 2015GWhSources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, etc.. own analyses *excluding gas-to-powerDaily conventional power generation peaked on March 2rd. Depending on power demand, power imports and renewables production, coal usage for power generation showed a weak week/weekend pattern. Mar 15     Page 13    Conventional Power Production March 2015 0501001502002503003501-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarCoal Gas NuclearMarch 2015GWhSources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analysesWind generation peaked on March 31 at more than 55 GWh. Solar PV was low in March, but increased by 20% compared to the March 2014 1 GWh is sufficient to provide power for a year to 300 households Mar 15     Page 14    Wind and Solar Power Production March 2015 0102030405060701-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarWind Solar-PVMarch 2015GWhSources: TenneT, Windstats, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesRenewable energy peaked to 6% on March 31st , while the fraction of renewable power peaked to 22% that day. These high values have been caused by high wind speeds in the last couple of days in March 2015, resulting in high wind power.  Mar 15      Page 15    Contribution  of Renewable Energy March 2015 0%5%10%15%20%25%1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarRen% Power Ren% Prim.March 2015Sources: CBS, GTS, TenneT, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analysesSELECTED  MONTHLY ENERGY DATA Mar 15     Page 16    In March 2015 gas demand (excluding gas demand for power production) was substantially higher than in March 2014, mainly due to lower temperatures in 2015 Mar 15     Page 17    Gas Demand 2015 (and 2014) 0510152025303540Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)TWhIn March 2015, Dutch gas production was 27% lower than in March 2014.  10 TWh gas is sufficient to supply heat all houses in Amsterdam for two years Mar 15     Page 18    Gas Production 2015 (and 2014) 0102030405060708090Sources: GTS, own analyses2015 (2014)TWhFor the third consecutive month, power demand was higher than previous years, indicating a continued growth of the Dutch economy Mar 15     Page 19    Power  Demand 2015 (and 2014) 024681012Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses2015 (2014)TWhWind power production is very volatile y-o-y. In February 2015, wind power generation was much lower than in previous year. In March 2015, the production of wind power was 40% higher than last year. Mar 15      Page 20    Wind Production 2015 (and 2014) 0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses2015 (2014)TWhIn March 2015, Solar PV was 21% higher than in previous year, mainly due to increased Solar PV capacity. Mar 15     Page 21    Solar PV Production  2015 (and 2014) 0.000.020.040.060.080.100.12Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses2015 (2014)TWhFor the third consecutive month, coal utilization for power generation has increased by about 20%. Mar 15     Page 22    Coal-to-Power  2015  (and 2014) 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)TWhIn March, power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration has increased significantly compared to previous year.  Main reason are the decreased net imports to the Netherlands.  Mar 15     Page 23    Gas to Power  2015  (and 2014) 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)TWhRenewable Energy  All Sources 2015 (and 2014) In March 2015, total renewable energy  production in The Netherlands increased by about 3% compared to March 2014. Lower contributions from biomass were compensated by higher contributions from wind and sun. Mar 15     Page 24    0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)TWhIn March 2015, the estimated national percentage of renewable energy as fraction of total energy  demand (EU definition) has been estimated at 4.0%. Mar 15     Page 25    Renewable  Energy Percentage   2015 (and 2014) 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)For the third consecutive month, Dutch CO2 emissions have increased compared to previous year.  The increase in March was 8%. The main causes are a higher energy usage due to lower temperatures, economic growth and less power imports. Mar 15     Page 26    CO2 Emissions  2015 (and 2014) 024681012141618Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses2015 (2014)MtonSELECTED  HOURLY ENERGY DATA Mar 15     Page 27    In March 2015, hourly gas production peaked at 150.000 MW (150 GW). LNG production in March was limited to 1,2 TWh, although five times higher than in March 2014. Mar 15     Page 28    Gas Supply   March 2015 -200000200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarNatural Gas origins   March 2015Storages Gas import LNG Terminals ProductionMWhSources: GTS, own analysesOn March 3rd, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to 80.000 MW (80 GW). The peak in gas demand has been caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas for power generation. Mar 15     Page 29    Gas Demand Including Gas-to-Power March 2015 01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarGas Demand   March 2015Industry LDC pointsMWhSources: GTS, own analysesMar 15     Page 30    Gas Imports & Exports March 2015 In March 2015, gas exports were 46 TWh, 9% lower than previous year. On the other hand, gas imports were 20% higher than in March 2014. -100000-80000-60000-40000-2000002000040000600001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarMarch 2015Gas export Gas importMWhSources: GTS, own analysesMar 15     Page 31    Power Imports & Exports  March 2015 In March 2015, power imports 2.1Wh, 23% less than in March 2014. Power exports increased to 1.5 TWh, 51% higher than previous year. -4000-3000-2000-10000100020003000400050001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarMarch 2015Power import Power exportMWhSources: TenneT, own analysesMarch 2015 was characterized by high wind availability in the beginning and the end of the month, and low wind availability in between.   Mar 15     Page 32    Wind Power March 2015 0500100015002000250030001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarWind Power  March 2015MWhSources: CertiQ, KNMI, etc., own analysesIn March Solar-PV peaked to 500 MW, up from 360 MW in February 2015. In March 2015, solar-PV was 20% higher than previous year, due to higher solar-PV installed capacity. On March, there was a solar eclipse. Mar 15     Page 33    Solar PV Power  March 2015 01002003004005006001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarSolar Power   March 2015MWhSources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesThe following set of slides presents for each month in 2015 the hourly contributions of various energy sources to total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar 15     Page 34    Mar 15     Page 35    Power Generation January 2015 -2000020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-JanNet import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGasMW January 2015sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are addedIn the week of 20-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by gas-fired installations. Mar 15     Page 36    Power Generation February 2015 Like in January, low wind availability coincided with net exports of power.  -2000020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-FebNet import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGasMW February 2015sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are addedMar 15     Page 37    Power Generation March 2015 -2000020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200001-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarNet import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGasMW March 2015sources: CBS, TenneT, KNMI, GTS, CertiQ, etc. & own analyses Data are addedRelatively low imports of power occurred in March. On some Saturdays, some net exports were recorded. The following set of slides presents for each week in 2015 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-PV to the total power consumption in The Netherlands. Mar 15     Page 38    Mar 15     Page 39    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200005-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-JanRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ,, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analysesMar 15     Page 40    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000012-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-JanRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc.., own analysesMar 15     Page 41    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000019-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-JanRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 42    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000026-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-FebRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 43    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-FebRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 44    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200009-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-FebRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, KNMI, PolderPV.nl, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 45    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000016-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-FebRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 46    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000023-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 1-MarRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analysesMar 15     Page 47    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-MarRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesMar 15     Page 48    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200009-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-MarRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesMar 15     Page 49    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000016-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-MarRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesMar 15     Page 50    Hourly Solar-PV and Wind Generation 2015 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000023-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-MarRest Wind solar-PVMWh 2015Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, Windstats, Klimaatmonitor, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesMISCELLANEOUS Mar 15     Page 51   The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in March 2015.  Mar 15     Page 52    Effective Temperature March 2015  -1012345671-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-MarMarch 2015Sources: KNMI, own analysesoCCharacteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation. Mar 15     Page 53    Fuel Specific CO2 Emissions  204279 3414502983967980100200300400500600700800900g/kWhSources: CE-Delft, own analysesPower GenerationFuelsEffects of the solar eclipse on March 20th have been limited due to cloudiness. In the afternoon of March 20th, after the solar eclipse, the clouds have disappeared Mar 15     Page 54    Solar-PV production affected by the  solar eclipse on March 20th  05010015020025030035040019-Mar 20-Mar 21-MarSolar Power   March 2015MWhSources: PolderPV.nl, KNMI, own analysesOn Friday March 27th, a black-out occurred in large parts of the Netherlands. Consequently, power consumption decreased during a number of hours. The power consumption of a week earlier has been depicted for comparison. Mar 15     Page 55    Power consumption  affected by the black-out on March 27th   02000400060008000100001200014000160001800026-Mar 27-Mar 28-MarPower Demand   March 2015MWhSources: TenneT, own analysesSend out of Gate terminal into the gas grid has increased significantly. Mar 15     Page 56    LNG imports 2015  (and 2014)  0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses2015 (2014)TWhThis presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data,  however, do not cover the entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex reality of the Dutch energy system.  Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable. Epilogue b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl Mar 15     Page 57    

Renewable Energy in The Netherlands:March 2015

https://research.hanze.nl/ws/files/10387331/29.Visser.Renewable_Energy_in_NL_Mar_2015.pdf

Renewable Energy in The Netherlands:March 2015

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