Changes in precipitation and river flow in northeast Turkey: associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract

This paper explores the relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and precipitation and river flow over northeast Turkey. Precipitation totals and maximum, mean and minimum river flow are analysed at the seasonal scale for 12 and 10 stations, respectively. Pearson’s and Mann-Kendall correlation tests are applied to assess relationships between the NAO index and precipitation and river flow metrics, and to detect trends in time-series. Autumn precipitation totals display significant increasing trends, especially for coastal stations, while inland stations show significant increasing trends for spring precipitation. Minimum and maximum river flow decreases significantly for spring and summer. This tendency implies varying conditions towards a drier regime. Seasonal precipitation patterns show a negative association with the NAO for December–January–February (DJF), March–April–May (MAM) and September–October–November (SON) for some stations. Positive associations between the NAO and winter-extended winter (December–March) river flows are detected for some stations in northeast Turkey