Alwi , Husein

Collignon, Marine

Fallahi , Mohammad J.

Hadi, Soffian

Hammer, Øyvind

Lupi, Matteo

Mazzini , Adriano

Schmid, Daniel W.

OceanRep

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 19, EGU2017-4822, 2017EGU General Assembly 2017© Author(s) 2017. CC Attribution 3.0 License.Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismicactivity: a statistical analysis.Marine Collignon (1), Øyvind Hammer (2), Mohammad J. Fallahi (1), Matteo Lupi (3), Daniel W. Schmid (4),Husein Alwi (1,5), Soffian Hadi (6), and Adriano Mazzini (1)(1) University of Oslo, Centre for Earth Evolution and Dynamics (CEED), Oslo, Norway (marine.collignon@geo.uio.no), (2)Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, (3) Department of Earth Science, Geneva, Switzerland, (4) Physics ofGeological Processes (PGP), Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, (5) Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember,Surabaya, Indonesia, (6) Badan Penanggulangan Lumpur Sidoarjo, Sidoarjo, IndonesiaThe 29th May 2006, gas water and mud breccia started to erupt at several localities along the Watukosek faultsystem in the Sidoarjo Regency in East Java Indonesia. The most prominent eruption site, named Lusi, is stillactive and the emitted material now covers a surface of nearly 7 km2, resulting in the displacement of ∼ 60.000people (up to date). Due to its social and economic impacts, as well as its spectacular dimensions, the Lusi eruptionstill attracts the attention of international media and scientists. In the framework of the Lusi Lab project (ERCgrant nº 308126), many efforts were made to develop a quasi-constant monitoring of the site and the regional areas.Several studies attempted to predict the flow rate evolution or ground deformation, resulting in either over-estimating or underestimating the longevity of the eruption. Models have failed because Lusi is not a mud volcanobut a sedimentary hosted hydrothermal system that became apparent after the M6.3 Yogyakarta earthquake.Another reason is because such models usually assume that the flow will decrease pacing the overpressurereduction during the deflation of the chamber. These models typically consider a closed system with a uniquechamber that is not being recharged. Overall the flow rate has decreased over the past ten years, althoughit has been largely fluctuating with monthly periods of higher mud breccia discharge. Monitoring of theeruption has revealed that numerous anomalous events are temporally linked to punctual events such as earth-quakes or volcanic eruptions. Nevertheless, the quantification of these events has never been investigated in details.In this study, we present a compilation of anomalous events observed at the Lusi site during the last 10years. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we then statistically compare the displacement, recorded at differentseismic stations around Lusi, with the regional and global earthquakes catalogue to test the probability that anearthquake striking the coast of Java affects the plumbing system at Lusi and triggers anomalous events.

Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis

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Linking the Lusi mud eruption dynamics with regional and global seismic activity: a statistical analysis

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