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Union dissolution decisions and childbearing in subsequent unions: a study of Australian panel data

Abstract

The extent to which childbearing occurs within marital unions has decreased dramatically over recent decades. While a wealth of studies examined recent patterns of childbearing out-ofwedlock and premarital childbearing, research has been less systematic on deciphering childbearing patterns after marital dissolution. Our study contributes to understanding of the latter by examining the associations between union dissolution decisions and post-marital firsttime parenthood and parity progressions. We argue that individuals initiate union dissolutions to leave union contexts that are not deemed appropriate for parenthood or for a rewarding family life. We test this using hazard regression models for first-to-fourth order conceptions leading to live births. The analyses are done in the context of multi-process modelling to address selectivity due to individual-specific unobserved factors that lead individuals to dissolve unions, re-partner, and build or grow their families. The sample is restricted to women aged 16 to 40, who were observed since their first marriage, from the panel study Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Our results show that while union dissolution is associated with lower rates of first-time parenthood, rates of parity progression are similar across stable first marital and subsequent unions. Initiating the dissolution of the first marital union does not significantly reduce the time to first or higher-order conceptions. Since we find conception episodes and union dissolutions to be positively associated on individual-specific unobserved factors, we conclude that further research is needed linking the causes and context of union dissolution with post-marital fertility behavior

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