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The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana, 
Slovenia, regularly analyses events in the Middle East and the Balkans. In view of the 
unsuccessful accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union IFIMES has 
prepared an analysis of the current political events in that country. The most relevant and 
interesting sections from the comprehensive analysis are given below.   
 
 
   BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA  
 
POSTPONED DECISION TO REMOVE DODIK AND SILAJDŽIĆ? 
 
 
In the first months of 2008, the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina has become 
even more complex due to the country's obviously unsuccessful accession to the European 
Union which is evident from the failure of the Parliament to adopt the key act on police 
reform despite the high level of political consensus achieved between the main political 
actors at the informal level through the so called  Mostar Declaration which was signed by 
six governing political parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For certain political forces in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina the police reform apparently does not represent an important step 
to be taken by the state in order to enable the signing of the Stabilisation and Association 
Agreement (SAA) with the EU. Traditionally, the rating of political parties is more important 
in Bosnia and Herzegovina than the stability and prosperity of the state. For example, the 
Party of Democratic Action (SDA) withdrew from the Mostar Declaration which does not 
comply with the three previously announced European principles, thus pouring oil on 
political flames in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the former "hero" of 
rejecting constitutional reforms in 2006 Haris Silajdžić has become the new political target. 
The compromise made in 2006 was then fatal for Sulejman Tihić (SDA), while this time the 
same might happen to the Party for BiH (SBIH) President Silajdžić. This has left his deputies 
in the BIH Parliament confused, not knowing whether to listen to their rigid leader or trust 
their own senses. Thus they have blocked the reform of proposed police laws which do not 
comply with three European principles. 
 
Only a few months prior to these agreement, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats 
(SNSD) President Milorad Dodik and Haris Silajdžić (SBiH) were about to be discharged 
from their responsibilities and limited in their further political activities. The main reason for 
not realising their removal was the resolution of the final status of Kosovo since the 
international community wanted to avoid creating further tensions in Bosnia and 
Herzegovina.  However, after Kosovo proclaimed its independence on 17 February 2008, 
some members of the international community have recalled the possibility of removing 
Dodik and Silajdžić.   
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DODIK AND SILAJDŽIĆ – FADING LEADERS 
 
In order to prevent his removal, Dodik had to provide guarantee to the international 
representatives that despite the open opposition of Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina to the 
independence of Kosovo he would prevent the spreading of riots in the Republic of Srpska 
with political actions and with the support of the police which used brutal force against the 
protestors in Banja Luka. This strengthened Dodik's position in the international community 
and temporarily postponed the decision on his removal from political life, while his position 
as the leader of Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina weakened. 
 
On the other hand, Silajdžić prevented his own removal by having diametrically changed his 
opinion. Thus, he now agrees that the police of Republic of Srpska remains a constituent 
element of the newly reformed police structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which incited 
strong revolt among the Bosniaks and weakened the political power and influence of this - 
until very recently - upright Bosniak leader. 
 
All this has proven earlier analyses made by the IFIMES International Institute stating that 
Dodik and Silajdžić co-ordinated their activities when they found it useful, making radical 
changes even at the detriment of the interests of their own nations in order to preserve their 
political positions and avoid (postpone) their removal. It is obvious what kind of profile these 
politicians represent. Dodik and Silajdžić are no exception nor surprise, they merely 
represent the established political practice in this chaotic country. There are simply no limits 
as to the deceptions which the politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina are ready to avail 
themselves of.  
 
FIGHTING DODIK'S AND SILAJDŽIĆ'S "CONSTRUCTION WORKERS" 
 
Dodik's and Silajdžić's attempts to present themselves to the international community as 
advocators of justice and fighters against organised crime and corruption have proven to be 
nothing but empty words. Any such concrete intentions would require dealing with large-
scale organised crime and even with some of their closest collaborators and friends from 
major construction companies whom they granted almost all main tenders and even 
smaller-scale projects. Unfortunately, Bosnia and Herzegovina will have to wait a long time 
until such true fight against organised crime might be realised. It will have to wait until a new 
generation of politicians without any past burdens or connections related to organised crime 
take over the helm, which certainly can not be expected of Dodik and Sijajdžić nor of many 
others in their circles.  
 
The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that an increasing number of people in 
Bosnia and Herzegovina believes Dodik and Silajdžić will only remain in power until the 
signing of SAA, after which they will, due to numerous burdens they have been encumbered 
with, no longer be interesting politicians for the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina as well 
as for the international community. 
 
Analysts have raised the question as to what would be the political alternative to present 
political parties such as SNDS in the Republic of Srpska and SBiH in the Federation of 
Bosnia and Herzegovina among the Serbian and Bosniak nations. 
 
It would be very dangerous for the country to turn back to the worn out nationalist politics 
represented by the Serb Democratic Party (SDS), Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), 
Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ BiH) and HDZ 1990. 
 
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The only appropriate alternative for Bosnia and Herzegovina would be to opt for moderate 
political parties which have always had a positive position on key national as well as 
European values and which have never supported exclusive/extremist politics.  
Unfortunately those parties have always been exposed to pressures and various forms of 
extortion from the major political parties which have continuously used nationalism as their 
main asset, forcing the moderate political forces to remain in the political background. The 
moderate political options in the Republic of Srpska were the Socialist Party (SP) and parts 
of SNSD which have been stifled by dominant lobbyists protecting their interests through 
this party. Gradually SNSD became the party protecting the interests of capital owners 
instead of protecting the citizens, especially the socially deprived, as is the usual practice in 
other European social democratic parties. 
 
A moderate political option in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the Social 
Democratic Party (SDP). However, it inevitably has to change its top leaders who should be 
oriented to more moderate ideas and open dialogue at the level of the state in order to 
introduce European democratic principles in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Several times SDP 
has been the driver of political conflicts, which have not helped Bosnia and Herzegovina to 
become stronger nor enabled SDP to improve its position. 
 
In the Croatian political block there have been some attempts to move away from the right-
handed HDZ BiH and HDZ 1990 and to emphasise the new essential dimension of Croatian 
policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the emergence of the Croat Peasant Party – New 
Croat Initiative (HSS-NHI) and partly also the Work for Prosperity ("Radom za boljitak") 
party. 
 
 Unofficially, the campaign for local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina which are to be 
held in October 2008 has already started. 
 
According to the data on corruption Bosnia and Herzegovina is the 84th of all together 179 
countries which were included in the survey on corruption. Thus Bosnia and Herzegovina is 
ranked at the same position as Gabon, Jamaica, Montenegro, Lesotho, Maldives, Kiribati, 
Swaziland, Thailand and Macedonia (Source: Transparency International Corruption 
Perceptions Index 2007). 
 
Data on the sample: 
• The sample: random, three-stage 
• Size of the sample: 770 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age) 
• Methodology: telephone survey 
• Period: March 24 to 28, 2008 
• Degree of reliability: 95% 
• Control: per 10% specimens 
• Standard deviation +/- 3 
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska (BiH) 
 
 
- HOW EFFICIENT ARE THE CURRENT AUTHORITIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF 
SRPSKA IN FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME AND CORRUPTION? 
 
- EFFICIENT                     21,10 % 
- NOT EFFICIENT            65,30 % 
- UNDECIDED                 13,60 % 
 
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EFFICIENT NOT EFFICIENT UNDECIDED
 
 
Data on the sample: 
• The sample: random, three-stage 
• Size of the sample: 790 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age) 
• Methodology: telephone survey 
• Period: March 24 to 28, 2008 
• Degree of reliability: 95% 
• Control: per 10% specimens 
• Standard deviation +/- 3 
• Territory: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) 
•  
 
- HOW EFFICIENT ARE THE CURRENT AUTHORITIES IN THE FEDERATION OF 
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA IN FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME AND 
CORRUPTION? 
 
- EFFICIENT                       19,80 % 
- NOT EFFICIENT               67,10 % 
- UNDECIDED                    13,10 % 
 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EFFICIENT NOT EFFICIENT UNDECIDED
 
 
Data on the sample: 
• The sample: random, three-stage 
• Size of the sample: 770 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age) 
• Methodology: telephone survey 
• Period: March 24 to 28, 2008 
• Degree of reliability: 95% 
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• Control: per 10% specimens 
• Standard deviation +/- 3 
• Territory: the Republic of Srpska (BiH) 
 
- HOW EFFICIENT IS THE EMPLOYMENT POLICY OF THE CURRENT 
AUTHORITIES IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA? 
 
- EFFICIENT                      17,80 % 
- NOT EFFICIENT              69,30 % 
- UNDECIDED                    12,90 % 
 
 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EFFICIENT NOT EFFICIENT UNDECIDED
 
 
 
Data on the sample: 
• The sample: random, three-stage 
• Size of the sample: 790 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age) 
• Methodology: telephone survey 
• Period: March 24 to 28, 2008 
• Degree of reliability: 95% 
• Control: per 10% specimens 
• Standard deviation +/- 3 
• Territory: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) 
 
 
- HOW EFFICIENT IS THE EMPLOYMENT POLICY OF THE CURRENT 
AUTHORITIES IN THE FEDERATION OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA? 
 
- EFFICIENT                     16,10 % 
- NOT EFFICIENT            68,70 % 
- UNDECIDED                  15,20 % 
 
 
 6 
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EFFICIENT NOT EFFICIENT UNDECIDED
 
 
 
Ljubljana, 9 April 2008 
         International Institute for Middle-East 
         and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) – Ljubljana 
                                                                             Director:     
                                                                   Bakhtyar Aljaf                                                               
          


Postponed Decision to Remove Dodik and Silajdzic?

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