In Caucasians with type 2 diabetes, circulating TNF receptors 1 (TNFR1) and 2 (TNFR2) predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Here we examined this relationship in a longitudinal cohort study of American Indians with type 2 diabetes with measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR, iothalamate) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio. ESRD was defined as dialysis, kidney transplant, or death attributed to diabetic kidney disease. Age-gender-adjusted incidence rates and incidence rate ratios of ESRD were computed by Mantel-Haenszel stratification. The hazard ratio of ESRD was assessed per interquartile range increase in the distribution of each TNFR after adjusting for baseline age, gender, mean blood pressure, HbA1c, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and mGFR. Among the 193 participants, 62 developed ESRD and 25 died without ESRD during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The age-gender-adjusted incidence rate ratio of ESRD was higher among participants in the highest vs. lowest quartile for TNFR1 (6.6, 95% CI 3.3–13.3) or TNFR2 (8.8, 95% CI 4.3–18.0). In the fully adjusted model, the risk of ESRD per interquartile range increase was 1.6 times (95% CI 1.1–2.2) as high for TNFR1 and 1.7 times (95% CI 1.2–2.3) as high for TNFR2. Thus, elevated serum concentrations of TNFR1 or TNFR2 are associated with increased risk of ESRD in American Indians with type 2 diabetes after accounting for traditional risk factors including albumin-to-creatinine ratio and mGF
