Observed and counterfactual mortality trends among infants and children aged 1–4 years, 1997–2009.

Abstract

<p>The observed mortality rate (for infants) or death rate (for age 1–4) is shown in black; the overall social sector expenditure counterfactual shows the predicted mortality/death rates if state per-capita overall social sector expenditure had remained at its 1997 level (blue); the poverty counterfactual shows the predicted mortality/death rates if poverty rates had remained at their 1997 levels (orange). (Note: the effect of overall social sector expenditure on mortality is essentially zero in boys less than one. Hence, the mortality rate under the overall social sector expenditure counterfactual [blue] coincides with the estimated mortality rate [black].)</p