Alexandri, Cecilia

Gavrilescu, Camelia

Luca, Lucian

Voicilas, Dan-Marius

Research Institute of Agricultural Economics

National strategy for agriculture in Romania - Horizon 2035Cecilia ALEXANDRICamelia GAVRILESCULucian LUCADan-Marius VOICILASInstitute of Agricultural Economics – Romanian AcademyBucharest, ROMANIABudapest, 03-05 October 2016Content• Food security and safety - Determinants (analytical approach)- Food availability - Food stability- Food access- Utilization of food• Strategic priorities for agriculture: ROMANIA’S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARSFood security - analytical approach• Two levels1. Food security at macro-economic level refers to the capacity of countries to provide sufficient food for their populations2. Food security at micro-economic level is important as the nutritional risks can be perceived at this level• Four dimensions of food security: 1. Food availability 2. Stability of agricultural and food supply3. Food access– in quantitative, qualitative, safety terms and in conformity with the individual dietary and socio-cultural customs4. Utilization of food– related to the individual food behaviour (individual desire to have a healthy diet)Food and nutrition securityMACRO-ECONOMIClevelWorldRegionCountryMICRO-ECONOMIClevelHouseholdIndividualDeterminants of food securityI. Food availabilityI. Food availability (1/2)Low level of domestic agricultural production self-sufficiency and existence of long-term deficits in important groups of products: meat, milk, vegetables, fruit and fish.In 2013, the self-sufficiency level of domestic agricultural production was: -152% in cereals 95% in vegetables79% in fruit 94% in dairy82% in meat           17% in fish.Food consumption evolution in the economic growth period 2001-2012 (%)I. Food availability (2/2)Romania is a country with a less developed agricultural and food sector, with significant productivity gaps compared to the developed countries, which will be gradually recovered on medium or long term. The gaps appear at the level of productivity per person employed in agriculture.The value added per person employed in agriculture (AWU) represents 29% from theeuropen level.The extremely fragmented agrarian structure and the large number of farms make it difficult for the agricultural products to cross the supply chains mainly in the sectors of vegetables, fruit and dairy products. The absence of farmers’ associations also amplifies this situation.According to the General Agricultural Census of 2010:- 39% of UAA is operated by farms < 10 ha, - 12% of UAA  ► 10 to 100 ha- 49% of UAA  ► more than 100 haTotal number of farms - over 3.8 million.Determinants of food securityII. Food stabilityII. Food stabilityEvolution of cereal production, import, export and consumption in Romania1. Crop production features high volatility in Romania, mainly in the case of grain production.The variation coefficient for grain production (2004-2012): Romania: 27.4%Poland:     8.95%France: 5.80%2. Human consumption dependency on imports (HCDI) is high in the case of grains in certain years and in soybean, sugar, meat, fish and fruit in most years. HCDI is calculated as ratio of imports to domestic supply. Values of HCDI for the period (2001-2011): Meat –25.5%Soybeans -25.8%Fruit – 16.8%Determinants of food securityIII. Food accessIII. Food access (1/3)Population’s access to food and nutrition quality are constrained by:- the low incomes in the case of certain large population categories, - the income gaps between residence areas,- by poverty (in general)III. Food access (2/3)Average indicators by householdFrance Poland RomaniaTotal consumption expenditures (euro)30379 11052 5514Total consumption expenditures (PPS)27627 18325 9623Food expenditures(PPS)3884 5069 3856Share of food expenditures (%)18.3 21.0 37.4Share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures, per total and by income quintiles (Q), in certain EU Member States (2010)19,3 19,6 19,618,616,723,3 23,0 22,9 21,518,147,142,939,636,931,705101520253035404550Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5%France Poland RomaniaIII. Food access (3/3)0,0500,01000,01500,02000,02500,03000,03500,02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013LeiTotal Income-UTotal Income-RCash income-UCash income-RHousehold income in urban (U) and rural (R) areas in Romania(constant prices 2013, HBS data)Determinants of food securityIV. Utilization of foodIV. Utilization of food (1/4)Poor food consumption in terms of quality :- high share of calories from cereals and potatoes- low intake of animal proteinNutritional risks for the vulnerable categories (under the poverty threshold and social exclusion):- low income groups- rural population- rroma populationIV. Utilization of food (2/4)Food consumption and share of food expenditures by residence areas (1st quarter 2011)Distribution of households by food consumption expressed in caloriesDistribution of households by the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures2,816,725,222,532,71,412,121,223,341,9051015202530354045<1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 >3000percentscalories/day/personUrban Rural43,830,516,16,92,713,218,322,7 23,5 22,205101520253035404550<40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% >70%percentsSchare of food in total consumption expendituresUrban RuralIV. Utilization of food (3/4)Food diversity of households from rural and urban areas measured by the Berry indexThe households with high dietary diversity for which the Berry index values are higher than 0.90 account for 68% in the urban area and only 36% in the rural area.The rural households have moderate dietary diversity, most of them (47%) having Berry index values ranging from 0.80 to 0.90. 020406080100Urban Rural>0.95>0.90; <=0.95>0.85; <=0.90>0.80;  <=0.85>0.75 ; <=0.80<=0.75IV. Utilization of food (4/4)Food consumption and share of food expenditures in certain population ethnic groups (1st quarter 2011)Distribution of households by food consumption expressed in caloriesDistribution of households by the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures14,916,4 17,220,930,628,924,619,415,012,005101520253035Under 40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Over 70%percentshare of food in total consumption expenditures, self-consumption inclusivelyRoma Non-Roma12,731,317,920,917,21,914,223,3 23,037,60510152025303540<1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 >3000percentcalories/day/personRroma Non-RromaStrategic priorities for AgricultureROMANIA’S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS(Romanian Academy version)Strategic priorities for Food Security and Safety withinROMANIA’S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS, of the ROMANIAN ACADEMY1.INCREASING ROMANIA’S AGRICULTURE ROLE AS FOOD SECURITY SUPPLIER, through: Increased coverage of food consumption needs from the domestic agricultural production Domestic agricultural supply stabilization, mainly through support measures for the irrigation and land reclamation infrastructure, as well as through other measures to fight against the climate change effects Increasing the agricultural exports and acquiring the food security supplier status at regional and European level2.INCREASING THE POPULATION’S ECONOMIC ACCESS TO FOOD AND NUTRITION QUALITY IMPROVEMENT Increasing the population’s purchasing power; Bridging up the gaps referring to the food access of the different categories of households; Qualitative improvement of the population’s food diet by increasing the animal protein consumption and food diversityPorku.m. Baseline situation (2013)Short term(2018)Medium term(2025)Long term(2035)Utilizable production thousand tons 421 465 560 610Imports thousand tons 190 160 100 80Exports thousand tons 30 40 55 80Supply availabilities thousand tons 580 585 605 610Self-supply level % 72% 72% 93% 100%►Increased coverage of population’s consumption needs from domestic productionPork production competitiveness and producer prices (Romania as compared to France and Poland)Monthly pork price evolutionsin the year 2007Monthly pork price evolutions in the year 20140,0020,0040,0060,0080,00100,00120,00140,00160,00180,00Euro/100 kg carcassYear & monthROPLFRUE0,0020,0040,0060,0080,00100,00120,00140,00160,00180,00200,00Euro/100 kg carcassYear & monthROPLFRUEVegetablesUM Baseline situation(2013)Short term(2018)Medium term(2025)Long term(2035)Utilizable production thousand tons 3326 3712 4143 4547Imports thousand tons 403 368 320 150Exports thousand tons 67 77 93 167Consumption availability thousand tons 3662 4003 4386 4530Self-sufficiency % 91% 93% 95% 100%►Increased coverage of population’s consumption needs from domestic productionFruitUM Baseline situation(2013)Short term(2018)Medium term(2025)Long term(2035)Utilizable production thousand tons 2291.5 2338.1 2539.0 2634.7Imports thousand tons 758.1 748.5 722.3 662.9Exports thousand tons 134.0 155.6 201.3 250.6Consumption availabilities thousand tons 2915.7 2930.9 3060.0 3046.9Self-sufficiency % 78.6% 79.8% 83.0% 86.5%►Increased coverage of population’s consumption needs from domestic production►Domestic agricultural supply stabilizationReference valueShort term2018Medium term2025Long term2035Share of agricultural area equipped with irrigation facilities21% (2014)21% 21% 21%Share of agricultural area effectively prepared for irrigations(functional/rehabilitated)  24%(720 thou. ha)(2015)28%(830 thou. ha)50%(1500 thou. ha)67%(2000 thou. ha)Share of effectively irrigated agricultural area6%(166 thou. ha)(2015)28%(830 thou. ha)50%(1500 thou. ha)67%(2000 thou. ha)Agricultural advisory service – share of farmers who participated to vocational training courses2,6 % (2005-2012 average) 7% 20% 50%Increasing the agricultural research expenditures185 mil euro(2015)+80% +150% +200%Agricultural education/Share of farm heads with full agricultural training0.4%(2013)7% 15% 25%Main directions and targets for the next 20 yearsReference value(2013)Short term(2018)Medium term(2025)Long term(2035) BalanceLive animals 151 149 224 291Permanently positiveMeat -261 -216 -88 71Positive since 2031Vegetables -106 -50 23 131Positive since2019Fruit -215 -180 -128 -46Permanently negativeCereals 1656 1835 2307 2685Permanently positiveTargets of foreign trade balance for main agricultural products (mil. euro)►Romania’s acquiring the status of exporting country of agricultural products and food security supplier at regional and European level ► Increasing the population’s access to food and food quality improvementUM Reference value(2013)Short term(2018)Medium term (2025)Long term(2035)Share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures, at purchasing power parity% 37.4 36.0 33.0 29.0Meat consumption(fresh meat equivalent), out of which:kg/capita 57.4 60.5 64.4 69.3-pigs kg/capita 29.0 29.6 31.2 32.6-poultry kg/capita 17.5 19.4 20.8 22.7-bovines kg/capita 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.5-sheep and goats kg/capita 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1Cereal consumption(grain equivalent)kg/capita 217 190 170 150Vegetable consumption(fresh vegetables equivalent)kg/capita 152 167 184 187Fruit consumption(fresh fruit equivalent)kg/capita 74 79 86 89AcknowledgementsThe research leading to these results has received funding from:- Romanian Academy project: Romania’s development strategy for the next 20 yearsand from- European Union's FP7/2007-2011, FOODSECURE,under Grant Agreement no. 290693Thank you for your attention !Cecilia ALEXANDRI – cecilia@eadr.roCamelia GAVRILESCU – gavrilescu@eadr.roLucian LUCA – luca@eadr.roDan-Marius VOICILAS – voicilas@eadr.ro

National strategy for agriculture in Romania - Horizon 2035

http://repo.aki.gov.hu/2693/1/S3_5_Voicilas_ERDN2016_Budapest.pdf

National strategy for agriculture in Romania - Horizon 2035

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