Assessing and Forecasting
Atmospheric Outflow of α-HCH
from China on Intra-, Inter-, and Decadal Time Scales
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Abstract
Atmospheric outflow of α-HCH from China from 1952
to 2009
was investigated using Chinese Gridded Pesticide Emission and Residue
Model (ChnGPERM). The model results show that the outflows via the
northeast boundary (NEB, longitude 115–135 °E along 55
°N and latitude 37–55 °N along 135 °E) and the
mid-south boundary (MSB, longitude 100–120 °E along 17
°N) of China account for 47% and 35% of the total outflow, respectively.
Two climate indices based on the statistical association between the
time series of modeled α-HCH outflow and atmospheric sea-level
pressure were developed to predict the outflow on different time scales.
The first index explains 70/83% and 10/46% of the intra-annual variability
of the outflow via the NEB and MSB during the periods of 1952–1984
and 1985–2009, respectively. The second index explains 16%
and 19% of the interannual and longer time scale variability in the
outflow through the NEB during June–August and via the MSB
during October–December for 1991–2009, respectively.
Results also revealed that climate warming may potentially result
in stronger outflow via the NEB than the MSB. The linkage between
the outflow with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and
climate warming trend over China was also discussed