Surface Evolution of the
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
Patch: Combined Effects of Circulation and Wind-Induced Drift
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Abstract
Following the Deepwater Horizon blowout, major concerns
were raised
about the probability that the Loop Current would entrain oil at the
surface of the Gulf of Mexico toward South Florida. However, such
a scenario did not materialize. Results from a modeling approach suggest
that the prevailing winds, through the drift they induced at the ocean
surface, played a major role in pushing the oil toward the coasts
along the northern Gulf, and, in synergy with the Loop Current evolution,
prevented the oil from reaching the Florida Straits. This implies
that both oceanic currents and surface wind-induced drift must be
taken into account for the successful forecasting of the trajectories
and landfall of oil particles, even in energetic environments such
as the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, the time range of these predictions
is limited to the weather forecasting range, in addition to the range
set up by ocean forecasting capabilities