Graphs illustrating the model predictions of the effect of spatial heterogeneity given the baseline input values in Tables (1, 2, 3).

Abstract

<p>The mean predicted numbers of appropriate treatments if a protocol based on the Vientiane epidemiology is applied nationally is plotted in Graph (a) for a range of values for national and regional variation. The 2.5% and 97.5% prediction intervals are plotted in Graphs (c) and (e). The mean additional numbers of appropriate treatments (i.e. the potential impact) predicted if a spatially explicit treatment protocol based on the incidence not only in Vientiane but also in three sentinel provinces were applied is plotted in Graph (b) for the same range of national and regional variation. The 2.5% and 97.5% prediction intervals are plotted in Graphs (c) and (f).</p

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