Thesis advisor: Robert MurphyWe empirically examine the Biased Expectations Hypothesis, which states that recent price movements in certain sectors play special roles in the formation of in- dividuals inflation expectations. Specifically we analyze whether economists rationally bias their expectations and whether economists and consumers naively bias their ex- pectations with respect to recent inflation in the food and energy sectors. We develop theoretical models for both rationally formed and naively formed inflation expecta- tions. We find that economists do not bias their rationally formed expectations and that consumers and economists do not naively form inflation expectations. Our results do not support the Biased Expectations Hypothesis; rather, they reinforce the use of core measures of inflation in policy making.Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2013.Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences.Discipline: Economics Honors Program.Discipline: Economics
