Usulan Perbaikan Perencanaan Produksi pada Produk Engine Tipe CJ untuk Mobil Pick Up di PT. XYZ dengan Metode TIME – Series

Abstract

Proposed Improvements In the Production Planning Product Engine Type CJ for cars Pick Up at PT. XYZ Method with Time – Series. Sales forecasting allows a company to have an optimal inventory levels to make informed purchasing decisions accordingly and maintain the efficiency of operational activities. Forecasting be a valuable tool for companies to design more effective and efficient, including for PT. XYZ is an automotive company with special competence in the pickup truck segment. The purpose of this study was to determine the best method of time series forecasting to predict sales of automobile engines pick up type CJ, and also obtain sales forecasting engine results for the next period, included as of January 2014 until September 2015.This research is a descriptive study using time series forecasting methods and techniques of data analysis using Microsoft Excel and WinQsb. The level of error resulting from forecasting methods known to the calculation error which consisted of mean absolute deviation (MAD), the mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and U theil to control forecast results. Based on the results of data analysis, time series forecasting methods known best to forecast engine sales at PT. XYZ is a linear method with 3 CMA. This method was chosen because it has the lowest error rate when compared with other methods, namely Rated MAD, MSE, MAPE and Theil U d is 339.24; 298,607.62; 11.18; 0.71