Environmental Assessment of Management Options for
Nutrient Flows in the Food Chain in China
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Abstract
The nitrogen (N)
and phosphorus (P) costs of food production have
increased greatly in China during the last 30 years, leading to eutrophication
of surface waters, nitrate leaching to groundwater, and greenhouse
gas emissions. Here, we present the results of scenario analyses in
which possible changes in food production–consumption in China
for the year 2030 were explored. Changes in food chain structure,
improvements in technology and management, and combinations of these
on food supply and environmental quality were analyzed with the NUFER
model. In the business as usual scenario, N and P fertilizer consumption
in 2030 will be driven by population growth and diet changes and will
both increase by 25%. N and P losses will increase by 44 and 73%,
respectively, relative to the reference year 2005. Scenarios with
increased imports of animal products and feed instead of domestic
production, and with changes in the human diet, indicate reductions
in fertilizer consumption and N and P losses relative to the business
as usual scenario. Implementation of a package of integrated nutrient
management measures may roughly nullify the increases in losses in
the business as usual scenario and may greatly increase the efficiency
of N and P throughout the whole food chain