Direct
and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on the
Risk of Infection by Water-Transmitted Pathogens
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Abstract
Climate change is likely to affect
the infectious disease burden
from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation.
Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts
of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment
and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic
review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how
climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks
due to <i>Campylobacter</i>, <i>Cryptosporidium</i>, norovirus, and <i>Vibrio</i>. Secondary objectives were
to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible
to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies
were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the
main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in
a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen
input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes
and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases,
the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions
of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive
effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects
of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA
to quantify the net effects
