A Spatial Modeling Framework
to Evaluate Domestic
Biofuel-Induced Potential Land Use Changes and Emissions
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Abstract
We present a novel bottom-up approach
to estimate biofuel-induced
land-use change (LUC) and resulting CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the
U.S. from 2010 to 2022, based on a consistent methodology across four
essential components: land availability, land suitability, LUC decision-making,
and induced CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Using high-resolution geospatial
data and modeling, we construct probabilistic assessments of county-,
state-, and national-level LUC and emissions for macroeconomic scenarios.
We use the Cropland Data Layer and the Protected Areas Database to
characterize availability of land for biofuel crop cultivation, and
the CERES-Maize and BioCro biophysical crop growth models to estimate
the suitability (yield potential) of available lands for biofuel crops.
For LUC decisionmaking, we use a county-level stochastic partial-equilibrium
modeling framework and consider five scenarios involving annual ethanol
production scaling to 15, 22, and 29 BG, respectively, in 2022, with
corn providing feedstock for the first 15 BG and the remainder coming
from one of two dedicated energy crops. Finally, we derive high-resolution
above-ground carbon factors from the National Biomass and Carbon Data
set to estimate emissions from each LUC pathway. Based on these inputs,
we obtain estimates for average total LUC emissions of 6.1, 2.2, 1.0,
2.2, and 2.4 gCO2e/MJ for Corn-15 Billion gallons (BG), <i>Miscanthus
× giganteus</i> (MxG)-7 BG, Switchgrass (SG)-7 BG, MxG-14
BG, and SG-14 BG scenarios, respectively