Simulated future projections of the local coral community spanning 80 years.

Abstract

<p>The future projections in panels <b>A</b>, <b>B</b> and <b>C</b> rely on the demographic scenario of constant influx of recruits (64 recruits per year). Panels <b>D</b>, <b>E</b> and <b>F</b> rely on the scenario of free-space regulation of recruitment (see <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#sec016" target="_blank">Material and Methods</a>). Panels <b>A</b> and <b>D</b> are based on the SST time-series measured between June 2006 and May 2007 recurrently from year to year in the corresponding months. Based on this time-series, we generate future projections by adding 0.5°C (panels <b>B</b> and <b>E</b>) and 1°C (panels <b>C</b> and <b>F</b>) to the SST of each month. In these simulations we allow each new recruit to settle randomly anywhere on the 10×10 m plane. <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004151#pcbi.1004151.s004" target="_blank">S4 Fig</a> demonstrates robustness of these patterns under mild parameter variations.</p

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