Saucedo, Lucio Alberto

English

Over the last decade the link between agricultural and oil markets has reinforced after the introduction of biofuels as substitutes for gasoline and diesel. Although the literature on price transmission between these markets is prolific, research on second order moment dynamics is scant. This study contributes to the understanding of this complex relation by providing average and spot measures of the magnitude and direction of volatility spillovers. Our methodology is based on forecast error variance decompositions of  VAR and VARMA systems of parametric and non-parametric volatility measures. Results show that the linkage between oil and agricultural markets has strengthened after the food and financial crisis of 2007/2008. Moreover, on a daily basis (co)variations of oil prices explain, on average, one fifth of volatility spillovers in agricultural products used as biofuel feedstocks before the crisis and one quarter afterwards

Georg-August-University Göttingen

Volatile agricultural markets, how much is oil to blame?

https://ediss.uni-goettingen.de/bitstream/11858/00-1735-0000-0028-87AD-0/1/Thesis%20v2-II%20%20copy.pdf

Volatile agricultural markets, how much is oil to blame?

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Georg-August-University Göttingen