Sensemaking of real estate management using real options and scenario planning

Abstract

Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change forces health organisations to deal more efficiently with real estate which makes flexibility more necessary. In order to support real estate managers in decision making in flexibility, we developed a method combining scenario planning and real options. This method is aimed to enhance sensemaking on both the consequences of future uncertainties on the organisation which influences real estate management, and on the types of flexibility needed to enable adapting to these changes. In this way, better real estate strategies can be developed. Through testing the method in one pilot case, this study shows sensemaking had taken place. Based on these results, propositions are developed focusing on the relation between real options, backcasting scenario planning and sensemaking