Population scenarios 2010-2050 for MED11 countries: a MEDPRO WP3 research report

Abstract

The focus of this report is on population and development scenarios of MED11 countries for the period 2010-2050. More specifically, we address (1) design aspects of the MEDPRO population and development scenarios, and projection methodology, (2) main results of population scenarios for MED11 countries, including comparison with results of the UN medium variant projection and EUROSTAT EU-27 population projection, and (3) we reflect on the implications of the scenarios for policy and planning, and elaborate on what the effect of the current dramatic political and societal events in the region might be on the results of our population scenarios. Section 2 describes the MEDPRO framework for development scenarios. Sections 3 and 4 describe how demographic behaviour might respond if people in MED11 countries would live in four different macro-economic and political contexts. Focus in section 3 is on developing story lines, i.e. qualitative population scenarios, about how demographic behaviour may change if the development context change, and we operationalize these in the form of quantitative population scenarios. In section 4 we briefly describe the population projection methodology and we present and analyse main results of the population scenarios 2010-2050 for MED11 countries. In section 5 we discuss address the implications of the population scenarios and reflect on the plausibility of the results in light of the dramatic political transitions in the region.