Nonparametric Modeling and Prognosis of Condition Monitoring Signals Using Multivariate Gaussian Convolution Processes

Abstract

<p>Condition monitoring (CM) signals play a critical role in assessing the remaining useful life of in-service components. In this article, an alternative view on modeling CM signals is proposed. This view draws its roots from multitask learning and is based on treating each CM signal as an individual task. Each task is then expressed as a convolution of a latent function drawn from a Gaussian process (GP), and the transfer of knowledge is achieved through sharing these latent functions between historical and in-service CM signals. Aside from being nonparametric, the flexible and individualistic approach in our model can account for heterogeneity in the data and automatically infer the commonalities between the new testing observations and CM signals in the historical dataset. The robustness and advantageous features of the proposed method are demonstrated through numerical studies and a case study with real-world data in the application to find the remaining useful life prediction of automotive lead-acid batteries. Technical details and additional numerical results are available in the supplementary materials.</p