Like Deck Chairs on the Titantic: Why Spectrum Reallocation Won\u27t Avert the Coming Data Crunch But Technology Might Keep the Wireless Industry Afloat

Abstract

Skyrocketing mobile data demands caused by increasing adoption of smartphones, tablet computers, and broadband-equipped laptops will soon swamp the capacity of our nation\u27s wireless networks, afact that promises to stagnate a $1 trillion slice of the nation\u27s economy. Among scholars and policymakers studying this looming spectrum crisis, consensus is developing that regulators must swiftly reclaim spectrum licensed to other industries and reallocate those rights to wireless providers. In this interdisciplinaryp iece, we explain in succinct terms why this consensus is wrong. With data demands increasing at an exponential rate, spectrum reallocation plans that promise only linear growth are destined to fail. What regulators should focus on, instead, are policies that encourage the sluggish incumbents presently dominating the wireless industry to roll out new networking technologies (like tiered network architectures, cognitive radio, and multicell MIMO) that together may allow exponential increases in spectral efficiency