This work proposes a novel cross-layer link performance prediction (LPP) model and link adaptation (LA) strategy for soft-decoded multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) bit-interleaved coded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (BIC-OFDM) systems employing hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) protocols. The derived LPP, exploiting the concept of effective signal-to-noise ratio mapping (ESM) to model system performance over frequency-selective channels, does not only account for the actual channel state information at the transmitter and the adoption of practical modulation and coding schemes (MCSs), but also for the effect of the HARQ mechanism with bit-level combining at the receiver. Such method, named aggregated ESM, or αESM for short, exhibits an accurate performance prediction combined with a closed-form solution, enabling a flexible LA strategy, that selects at every protocol round the MCS maximizing the expected goodput (EGP), i.e., the number of correctly received bits per unit of time. The analytical expression of the EGP is derived capitalizing on the αESM and resorting to the renewal theory. Simulation results carried out in realistic wireless scenarios corroborate our theoretical claims and show the performance gain obtained by the proposed αESM-based LA strategy when compared with the best LA algorithms proposed so far for the same kind of systems
