Culp, C.

Haberl, J.

Yazdani, B.

English

Texas A&amp;M Repository

Energy Systems Laboratory p.  1Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles CulpEnergy Systems LaboratoryTexas Engineering Experiment StationTexas A&M University SystemSTATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLESMay 2008ESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  2Electricity Production from Wind Farms (2002-2007)• Installed capacity of wind turbines was 3,026 MW (March 2007).• Announced new project capacity is 3,125 MW by 2010. • Lowest electricity period occurs during Ozone Season Period. Texas Wind Power Generation (Source: ERCOT & PUC) 0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02Jun-02Sep-02Dec-02Mar-03Jun-03Sep-03Dec-03Mar-04Jun-04Sep-04Dec-04Mar-05Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Wind Power Generation (MWH)04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,600Installed Capacity (MW)Ercot Data - MWH Ercot Data - MWTotal Installed Capacity in Ercot Area by 2006 Total Installed Capacity in Texas by 20062002 2003 2004 2005 2006ESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  3Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind FarmsWhat issues did TCEQ ask ESL to resolve to calculate OSP NOx reductions from wind farms in the base year? Capacity Factors Using NOAA Daily Models0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecMonthCapacity FactorMeasured CF (Oct 01 to Sep 02) 1999 CF2000 CF 2001 CF2002 CF 2003 CF2004 CF 2005 CFAverage CF (1999-2005)OSPLarge variations in measured power vs base year power production in the OSP.ESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  4Next, looked at hourly electricity produced vs NOAA wind data.Issue: too much scatter. Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (On-site)   010203040500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50On-site Wind Speed (MPH)Turbine Power (kWh/h) Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (NOAA) 010203040500.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0NOAA Wind Speed (MPH)Turbine Power (kWh/h)Hourly electricity produced vs on-site wind data acceptable for  hourly modeling.Issue: hourly on-site data not always available.Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind FarmsESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  5Next, compared daily on-site wind data vs daily NOAA data Result: Daily data was acceptable when frequency of occurrence was similar. Daily Wind Speed (10/2001-9/2002) 051015202530354045500 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50On-Site Wind Speed (MPH)Average Daily NOAA Wind Speed (MPH) Wind Speed Distribution (Oct. 2001 to Sep. 2002)0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50Wind Speed (MPH)Frequency of Occurrence On-site Wind SpeedNOAA Wind SpeedCalculating NOx Reductions from Wind FarmsESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  6Next, compared NOAA and on-site daily models to see how well the predicted OSP electricity production. (Result: acceptable). Capacity Factors Using Daily Models0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02MonthCapacity Factor0510152025Average Daily Wind Speed Per Month (mph)Measured CF NOAA Daily Model CFOn-site Daily Model CF On-site Wind SpeedNOAA Wind SpeedOSPCalculating NOx Reductions from Wind FarmsESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  7 OSD MWh Savings   (Preliminary Estimates)05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020MWh/OSDFinal Issue: TCEQ asked ESL to develop an integrated tool to project NOx  reductions from wind farms through 2020 by county, using  eGRID, including: + discount, + degradation, + T&D losses & + growth.Energy savings summary: (program wise)Base year 1999Projection year 2020Adjustment factorsAnnual degradation factor5 5.00%T&D loss 0.00%Initial discount factor6 25.00%Growth factorAccording to SB 20, section 39.904Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)0.010.020.030.040.050.060.02005 Cum.2006Cum.2007Cum.2008Cum.2009Cum.2010Cum.2011Cum.2012Cum.2013Cum.2014Cum.2015Cum.2016Cum.2017Cum.2018Cum.2019Cum.2020Tons/Ozone Season DayESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-MultifamilyESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  8Upgrade ImpactUse NOx Avg.Life FactorIndustries: 60% 23% 5 – 20 yr 1 – 5Vehicles: 19% 54% 7 – 10 yr 4 – 5Buildings: 21% 22% 25 – 50 yr 5 – 11Buildings substantially impact emissions!  SOURCE: Statewide Use: USDOE/EIA, 1999  Statewide Emissions: TNRCC 2000IntroductionEnergy Emissions and Impact FactorESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  9 Total OSD NOx Emissions Reductions(SF, MF and Commercial Buildings)0.000.100.200.300.400.500.60HARRISTARRANTCOLLINDALLASBEXARTRAVISDENTONWILLIAMSONEL PASOMONTGOMERGALVESTONBRAZORIACOMALROCKWALLHAYSNUECESFORT BENDELLISJOHNSONGUADALUPEKAUFMANJEFFERSONPARKERSMITHBASTROPCHAMBERSGREGGSANLIBERTYVICTORIAORANGECALDWELLWILSONHARDINHARRISONWALLERUPSHURRUSKHOODHUNTHENDERSONHIDALGOCAMERONBELLWEBBBRAZOSKENDALLBURNETGRAYSONCORYELLMIDLANDLLANOMAVERICKMCMULLENARANSASWICHITATAYLORTOM GREENMCLENNANMCCULLOCHWISEJIM HOGGVAL VERDEECTORWHARTONKERRPRESIDIOJIM WELLSCALHOUNGILLESPIEMATAGORDANAVARROANGELINANACOGDOCHFANNINATASCOSAWASHINGTONLAMARVAN ZANDTWILLACYBROWNERATHAUSTINCOOKEMEDINATITUSUVALDEFAYETTECALLAHANHOPKINSLAMPASAS BLANCOFREESTONEGRIMES LEESOMERVELLANDREWSBORDENCountyOSD NOx Emissions Reductions (Tons/yr)Single Family Houses Multifamily House Commercial Buildings Natural Gas (SF+MF+Commercial)Non-attainment and Affected Counties Other ERCOT CountiesNOx emissions reductions calculated from new residential and commercial  construction using EPA’s eGRID and AP-42 (Result: 10.75 tons/OSD).Energy Efficiency ReportingESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  10  In 2005 the TCEQ initiated a program to determine integrated NOx emissions savings (2013 and beyond) to allow for savings to be reported to the EPAState Agencies included:– TEES/ESL, – PUC, – SECO, – ERCOT/Wind Savings Integration allows:– Annual, OSD savings– By County– By SIP– By Program– Integration tool = Adjustable Discount, Degradation, T&D lossesIntegrated NOx Savings ESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  11 OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)0.010.020.030.040.050.060.02005 Cum.2006Cum.2007Cum.2008Cum.2009Cum.2010Cum.2011Cum.2012Cum.2013Cum.2014Cum.2015Cum.2016Cum.2017Cum.2018Cum.2019Cum.2020Tons/Ozone Season DayESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-MultifamilyCumulative NOxemissionsreductionscalculated across state programs (2013)Code Compliance (10.75 tons/day)Federal Buildings (0.81 tons/day)Furnace Pilot Lights (0.32 tons/day)PUCs SB7,SB5 programs (4.78 tons/day)SECO Political Sub. (0.84 tons/day)Green Power (Wind) (12.32 tons/day)SEER 13 Retrofits (11.03 tons/day)Total (40.86 tons/day)Integrated NOx Savings: ResultsAnnual Reporting to the TCEQ, papers, QAPP, etc. OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.02005 Cum.2006Cum.2007Cum.2008Cum.2009Cum.2010Cum.2011Cum.2012Cum.2013Cum.2014Cum.2015Cum.2016Cum.2017Cum.2018Cum.2019Cum.2020Tons/Ozone Season DayESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-MultifamilyESL-TR-08-05-02Energy Systems Laboratory p.  12ESL CONTACT INFORMATIONJeff Haberl: jeffhaberl@tees.tamus.eduBahman Yazdani:  bahmanyazdani@tees.tamus.eduCharles Culp: charlesculp@tees.tamus.eduhttp://eslsb5.tamu.eduESL-TR-08-05-02

Statewide Air Emissions Calculations from Energy Efficiency, Wind and Renewables

Texas A&M University

Energy Systems Laboratory p.  1
Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles Culp
Energy Systems Laboratory
Texas Engineering Experiment Station
Texas A&M University System
STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS 
CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY 
EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES
May 2008
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  2
Electricity Production from Wind 
Farms (2002-2007)
• Installed capacity of wind turbines was 3,026 MW (March 2007).
• Announced new project capacity is 3,125 MW by 2010. 
• Lowest electricity period occurs during Ozone Season Period.
 Texas Wind Power Generation (Source: ERCOT & PUC) 
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Sep-
01
Dec-
01
Mar-
02
Jun-
02
Sep-
02
Dec-
02
Mar-
03
Jun-
03
Sep-
03
Dec-
03
Mar-
04
Jun-
04
Sep-
04
Dec-
04
Mar-
05
Jun-
05
Sep-
05
Dec-
05
Mar-
06
Jun-
06
Sep-
06
Dec-
06
W
in
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 P
o
w
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r 
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ra
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o
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 (
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400
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2,800
3,200
3,600
In
s
ta
ll
e
d
 C
a
p
a
c
it
y
 (
M
W
)
Ercot Data - MWH Ercot Data - MW
Total Installed Capacity in Ercot Area by 2006 Total Installed Capacity in Texas by 2006
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  3
Calculating NOx Reductions 
from Wind Farms
What issues did TCEQ ask ESL to resolve to calculate OSP 
NOx reductions from wind farms in the base year?
 Capacity Factors Using NOAA Daily Models
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
C
a
p
a
c
it
y
 F
a
c
to
r
Measured CF (Oct 01 to Sep 02) 1999 CF
2000 CF 2001 CF
2002 CF 2003 CF
2004 CF 2005 CF
Average CF (1999-2005)
OSP
Large variations in measured power vs base year power production in the OSP.
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  4
Next, looked at hourly electricity 
produced vs NOAA wind data.
Issue: too much scatter.
 
Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (On-site)   
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
On-site Wind Speed (MPH)
Tu
rb
in
e 
Po
w
er
 
(k
W
h/
h)
 
Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (NOAA) 
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
NOAA Wind Speed (MPH)
Tu
rb
in
e 
Po
w
er
 
(k
W
h/
h)
Hourly electricity produced vs on-
site wind data acceptable for  
hourly modeling.
Issue: hourly on-site data not 
always available.
Calculating NOx Reductions 
from Wind Farms
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  5
Next, compared daily on-site wind 
data vs daily NOAA data 
Result: Daily data was acceptable 
when frequency of occurrence was 
similar.
 Daily Wind Speed (10/2001-9/2002) 
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
On-Site Wind Speed (MPH)
Av
er
ag
e 
Da
ily
 N
O
AA
 W
in
d 
Sp
ee
d 
(M
PH
)
 
Wind Speed Distribution (Oct. 2001 to Sep. 2002)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Wind Speed (MPH)
Fr
eq
ue
nc
y 
of
 O
cc
ur
re
nc
e 
On-site Wind Speed
NOAA Wind Speed
Calculating NOx Reductions 
from Wind Farms
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  6
Next, compared NOAA and on-site daily models to see how well the 
predicted OSP electricity production. (Result: acceptable).
 Capacity Factors Using Daily Models
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02
Month
C
ap
ac
ity
 F
ac
to
r
0
5
10
15
20
25
A
ve
ra
ge
 D
ai
ly
 W
in
d 
Sp
ee
d 
Pe
r M
on
th
 
(m
ph
)
Measured CF NOAA Daily Model CF
On-site Daily Model CF On-site Wind Speed
NOAA Wind Speed
OSP
Calculating NOx Reductions 
from Wind Farms
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  7
 OSD MWh Savings   (Preliminary Estimates)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MW
h/
OS
D
Final Issue: TCEQ asked ESL to develop 
an integrated tool to project NOx  
reductions from wind farms through 2020 
by county, using  eGRID, including: 
+ discount, 
+ degradation, 
+ T&D losses & 
+ growth.
Energy savings summary: (program wise)
Base year 1999
Projection year 2020
Adjustment factors
Annual degradation 
factor5 5.00%
T&D loss 0.00%
Initial discount 
factor6 25.00%
Growth factor
According to SB 20, 
section 39.904
Calculating NOx Reductions 
from Wind Farms
 
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.
2006
Cum.
2007
Cum.
2008
Cum.
2009
Cum.
2010
Cum.
2011
Cum.
2012
Cum.
2013
Cum.
2014
Cum.
2015
Cum.
2016
Cum.
2017
Cum.
2018
Cum.
2019
Cum.
2020
To
ns
/O
zo
ne
 S
ea
so
n 
D
ay
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)
SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings
Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  8
Upgrade Impact
Use NOx Avg.Life Factor
Industries: 60% 23% 5 – 20 yr 1 – 5
Vehicles: 19% 54% 7 – 10 yr 4 – 5
Buildings: 21% 22% 25 – 50 yr 5 – 11
Buildings substantially impact emissions!  
SOURCE: Statewide Use: USDOE/EIA, 1999  
Statewide Emissions: TNRCC 2000
Introduction
Energy Emissions and Impact Factor
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  9
 
Total OSD NOx Emissions Reductions
(SF, MF and Commercial Buildings)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
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 N
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Em
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R
ed
uc
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ns
 (T
on
s/
yr
)
Single Family Houses Multifamily House Commercial Buildings Natural Gas (SF+MF+Commercial)
Non-attainment and Affected Counties Other ERCOT Counties
NOx emissions reductions calculated from new residential and commercial  
construction using EPA’s eGRID and AP-42 (Result: 10.75 tons/OSD).
Energy Efficiency Reporting
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  10
  
In 2005 the TCEQ initiated a program to determine 
integrated NOx emissions savings (2013 and beyond) to 
allow for savings to be reported to the EPA
State Agencies included:
– TEES/ESL, 
– PUC, 
– SECO, 
– ERCOT/Wind 
Savings Integration allows:
– Annual, OSD savings
– By County
– By SIP
– By Program
– Integration tool = Adjustable Discount, Degradation, T&D losses
Integrated NOx Savings ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  11
 
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.
2006
Cum.
2007
Cum.
2008
Cum.
2009
Cum.
2010
Cum.
2011
Cum.
2012
Cum.
2013
Cum.
2014
Cum.
2015
Cum.
2016
Cum.
2017
Cum.
2018
Cum.
2019
Cum.
2020
To
ns
/O
zo
ne
 S
ea
so
n 
D
ay
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)
SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings
Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Cumulative NOx
emissions
reductions
calculated across 
state programs (2013)
Code Compliance (10.75 tons/day)
Federal Buildings (0.81 tons/day)
Furnace Pilot Lights (0.32 
tons/day)
PUCs SB7,SB5 programs (4.78 
tons/day)
SECO Political Sub. (0.84 
tons/day)
Green Power (Wind) (12.32 
tons/day)
SEER 13 Retrofits (11.03 tons/day)
Total (40.86 tons/day)
Integrated NOx Savings: Results
Annual Reporting to the TCEQ, papers, QAPP, etc.
 
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2005 Cum.
2006
Cum.
2007
Cum.
2008
Cum.
2009
Cum.
2010
Cum.
2011
Cum.
2012
Cum.
2013
Cum.
2014
Cum.
2015
Cum.
2016
Cum.
2017
Cum.
2018
Cum.
2019
Cum.
2020
To
ns
/O
zo
ne
 S
ea
so
n 
D
ay
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)
SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal Buildings
Furnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
ESL-TR-08-05-02
Energy Systems Laboratory p.  12
ESL CONTACT INFORMATION
Jeff Haberl: jeffhaberl@tees.tamus.edu
Bahman Yazdani:  bahmanyazdani@tees.tamus.edu
Charles Culp: charlesculp@tees.tamus.edu
http://eslsb5.tamu.edu
ESL-TR-08-05-02


https://oaktrust.library.tamu.edu/bitstream/1969.1/93353/1/ESL-TR-08-05-02.pdf

Statewide Air Emissions Calculations from Energy Efficiency, Wind and Renewables

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Texas A&M University

Statewide Air Emissions Calculations from Energy Efficiency, Wind and Renewables

Abstract

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Full text

Available Versions

Texas A&amp;M Repository

Texas A&M University

Texas A&M Repository