Cisneros Espinoza, Felipe

Cordova Vela, Gonzalo

Diaz Granda, Catalina

Goethals, Peter

Iñiguez Vela, Xavier

Jerves Cobo, Rubén

Nopens, Ingmar

Zhindon Argoti, Diego

Ghent University Academic Bibliography

Determination of physical–chemical conditions to predict macroinvertebrate communities in Machangara River (Southern Andes, in Ecuador)Rubén Jerves-Cobo, Ingmar Nopens, Peter GoethalsRuben.JervesCobo@UGent.BeMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beLaboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic EcologyBackground and objectiveMaterials and methodsResults ConclusionOUTLINE2MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.be1-BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE• Destruction of native vegetation.• Fuelwood• Land for livestock and agriculture• High flow variation for dams presence• Main source of water supply for the Cuenca City. • Necessity to improve actual conditions3MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (02,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Environmental Toxicology Unit (GhEnToxLab)www.ecotox.ugent.be - @GhEnToxLab - Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beObjective• Construction of Habitat Suitability Model (HSM) as decision makers tool.• How is the variation of the Ecological Water Quality (EWQ) in the basin?4MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (02,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Environmental Toxicology Unit (GhEnToxLab)www.ecotox.ugent.be - @GhEnToxLab - Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beLOCATION:2- MATERIALS AND METHODSMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beBASIN CHARACTERISTICS:– Area: 325 Km2– Protected Forest: 252 Km2– Altitude: 2,450 to 3,850 masl– Annual Rainfall: 877 to 1,363 mm/year– Average Temperature:16.3 to 9 oCMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beBASIN CHARACTERISTICS:MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beLAND USEMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beDATA COLLECTION:- 44 sampling locations- Completed information on 33 locationsPhysicochemical, hydraulic, microbiological• Laboratory– BOD5, COD, Nitrate + Nitrite, Ammonia, Organic Nitrogen,  Phosphates, Total Phosphorus, Fecal and Total Coliforms, Real Color, Turbidity, Total Solids• Field: Flow Velocity, Ph, Conductivity, Temperature, Dissolved OxygenMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beVariables VariationMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beVariables VariationMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beDATA COLLECTION:Macrobenthos• Kick Sweep Method– 3 minutes in 2.5 m2– Two times in same are– Standard net• Identified a family level – Stereoscope – Identification Keys• 39 families (taxa) foundMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beECOLOGICAL WATER QUALITY• Biological Monitoring Working Party Index - Col• BMWP-Col = f(Sensitivity of Macrobenthos)• Sensitivity -> 1-10 (Low – High Sensitivity)  Class Quality BMWP ColorI Very Good > 100II Good 61 - 100III Regular 36 - 60IV Bad 16 - 35V Critical ≤ 15MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beMeasurement setTraining datasetEcosystem12Validation datasetModel development MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.be• Classification trees: searching for if-then rules (threshold values): 100% reliable and ‘safe’ models• WekaAbsencePresenceacbB<a B>=aO<=bO>bO<cO<=cOMethodologyPruned Multi-target Clustering Trees (PMCT)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beMethodologyGeneralized Linear Model (GLM)• Binomial fitting – Presence and Absence• R0 = Absence1 = Presenceti = Variable iπ(t1,… . 𝑡𝑛)=𝑒(−𝑎𝑜−𝑎1𝑥𝑡1− ………−𝑎𝑛×𝑡𝑛)1 + 𝑒(−𝑎𝑜−𝑎1𝑥𝑡1− ………−𝑎𝑛×𝑡𝑛)tiMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beBMWP-Col:- 9 good- 15 moderate- 6 poor - 3 badECOLOGICAL WATER QUALITYMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.be3- RESULTSPerlidae (Plecoptera)CCI = 73%Cohen´s Kappa Statistic = 0.44MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beLeptophlebiidae (Ephemeroptera)CCI = 79%Cohen´s Kappa Statistic = 0.45MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beScirtidae (Coleoptera)CCI = 73%Cohen´s Kappa Statistic = 0.42MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beScirtidae (Coleoptera) (R2=59%, AIC=29.8)π=𝑒(−21.4619−11.6893×𝑩𝑶𝑫𝟓+1.4126×𝑫𝑶+0.8286×𝑪𝑶𝑫+56.7596×𝑵𝒊𝒕𝒓𝒂.𝑵𝒊𝒕𝒓𝒊+140.335×𝑷𝒉𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉)1 + 𝑒(−21.4619−11.6893×𝑩𝑶𝑫𝟓+1.4126×𝑫𝑶+0.8286×𝑪𝑶𝑫+56.7596×𝑵𝒊𝒕𝒓𝒂.𝑵𝒊𝒕𝒓𝒊+140.335×𝑷𝒉𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beLeptoceridae (Trichoptera) (R2=68%, AIC=26.5)π=𝑒(50.4797+6.4095×𝐿𝑔𝑭𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒇−12.2656×𝑭𝒍𝑽𝒆𝒍−12.4040×𝑩𝑶𝑫𝟓−5.3051×𝒑𝑯−1.1153×𝑪𝑶𝑫−0.0775×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅)1 + 𝑒(50.4797+6.4095×𝐿𝑔𝑭𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒇−12.2656×𝑭𝒍𝑽𝒆𝒍−12.4040×𝑩𝑶𝑫𝟓−5.3051×𝒑𝑯−1.1153×𝑪𝑶𝑫−0.0775×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beBaetis (Ephemeroptera) (R2=60%, AIC=22.5)π=𝑒(26.9459−2.8553×𝑻𝒆𝒎−0.4083×𝑻_𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒐𝒓+0.1293×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅+0.7462×𝑪𝑶𝑫)1 + 𝑒(26.9459−2.8553×𝑻𝒆𝒎−0.4083×𝑻_𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒐𝒓+0.1293×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅+0.7462×𝑪𝑶𝑫)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beBaetis (Ephemeroptera)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beTrycorythidae (Ephemeroptera) (R2=60%, AIC=31.9)π=𝑒(−21.0763+3.5121×𝑭𝒍𝑽𝒆𝒍−1.4066×𝑻𝒖𝒓𝒃−1.2660×𝑻𝒆𝒎+3.3683×𝒑𝑯+0.0947×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅+419.2533𝑻_𝑷𝒉𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉)1 + 𝑒(−21.0763+3.5121×𝑭𝒍𝑽𝒆𝒍−1.4066×𝑻𝒖𝒓𝒃−1.2660×𝑻𝒆𝒎+3.3683×𝒑𝑯+0.0947×𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒅+419.2533𝑻_𝑷𝒉𝒐𝒔𝒑𝒉)MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.be4- CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK- Habitat Suitability Model (HSM) -> Predict absence or presence of some taxa- The statistical models are a Good Fit- EWQ = Critical  ->  Absence of    Leptophlebiidae, Trycorythidae, Leptoceridae and Scirtidae.- Models analyzed -> potentially used as decision support tools inriver basin management MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beAcknowledgement- VLIR-UOS IUC Programme - Universidad de Cuenca - VLIR Ecuador Biodiversity Network Project - Consejo de la Cuenca del Río MachángaraMODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.beThank you?28MODSIM2015, Gold Cost, Australia, Date (03,12, 2015)Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Aquatic Ecology Unit Ruben.JervesCobo@UGent.be• Bibliography:• D'Heygere, T., P. L. M. Goethals, and N. De Pauw. 2003. Use of Genetic Algorithms to Select Input Variables in Decision Tree Models for the Prediction of Benthic Macroinvertebrates. Ecological Modelling 160:291-300• Everaert, G., I. S. Pauwels, P. Boets, E. Verduin, M. A. A. de la Haye, C. Blom, and P. L. M. Goethals. 2013. Model-based Evaluation of Ecological Bank Design and Management in the Scope of the European Water Framework Directive. Ecological Engineering 53:144-152.• Maimon, O., and L. Rokach. 2005. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Handbook. Springer.• Roldán Pérez, G. 1999. Los Macroinvertebrados y Su Valor Como Indicadores de la Calidad del Agua. Academia Colombiana de Ciencia 23:375-387.• Zuur, A., E. N. Ieno, N. Walker, A. A. Saveliev, and G. M. Smith. 2009. Mixed Effects Models and Extensions in Ecology with R. Springer Science & Business Media29

Determination of physical-chemical conditions to predict macroinvertebrate communities in Machangara River (Southern Andes, in Ecuador)

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Determination of physical-chemical conditions to predict macroinvertebrate communities in Machangara River (Southern Andes, in Ecuador)

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