Presentation covers the following themes:

1. origin of project

2. how project was conducted

3. what has been produced

4. why it is importan

Greenhalgh, Paul

Muldoon-Smith, Kevin

Northumbria University Research Portal

Citation:  Greenhalgh,  Paul  and Muldoon-Smith,  Kevin  (2016)  Devolution and the role  of Commercial  Real  Estate  Development.  In:  North  East  Chamber  of  Commerce Business Breakfast, 29 June 2016, Newcastle upon Tyne. (Unpublished) URL: This  version  was  downloaded  from  Northumbria  Research  Link: http://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/33004/Northumbria University has developed Northumbria Research Link (NRL) to enable users to access the University’s research output. Copyright ©  and moral rights for items on NRL are retained by the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners.  Single copies of full items can be reproduced,  displayed or  performed,  and given to third parties in  any format  or medium for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge, provided the authors, title and full bibliographic details are given, as well  as a hyperlink and/or URL to the original metadata page.  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To read and/or cite from the published version of the research, please visit the publisher’s website (a subscription may be required.)Devolution and the role of Commercial Real Estate Development29th June 2016Dr Paul Greenhalgh and Dr Kevin Muldoon-SmithDepartment of Architecture and Built EnvironmentFaculty of Engineering and EnvironmentR3Intelligence IntroductionA whirlwind tour of R3 Intelligence and our recent work: Where the project originated How we have done it What we have produced  Why it is importantReason for producing this summary: Disseminate preliminary analysis and findings  Demonstrate the synergy between commercial real estate and devolution  Offer opportunity for feedback and suggestions as to how we can support landlords and developers in the devolution revolution Project Evolution Previous research regarding commercial real estate filtering, chaining, displacement and resilience (Greenhalgh 2003, 2008, Greenhalgh and King 2010, 2013). Highlighted gap and potential for hybrid property market data models.  Led to PhD studentship (Dr Kevin Muldoon-Smith) and the creation of a multi criteria real estate model of England and Scotland using Valuation Office Agency and National Business Rate Returns.Method (Data and Filtering) The model of commercial and industrial property can be drilled down into the individual hereditament or aggregated and up-scaled to property sector (including relative homogeneity).  The presentation of our data is flexible (descriptive, trend, statistical, and spatial/GIS) and has the potential to be further enhanced with additional data sets such as IMD, Local Government Spend, Business activity etcOur data base contains:(millions) (Billions) Office space:              92m sq m           1bn sq ft           Industrial space:      323m sq m           3bn sq ft Retail space:             181m sq m          1bn sq ft Initial Analysis  Office vacancy time bomb Citibase Ltd: Survey of secondary office vacancy in the UK Spatial Analysis/GIS modelling of:– Tyne and Wear– Tees Valley– Leeds– CroydonManhattan on Tyne and WearStock Efficiency: a GIS model of commercial & industrial stock and vacancy in Tyne and Wearhttp://r3intelligence.co.uk/The Croydon Office Market..\..\..\Northumbria_Croydon\index.htmlThe Leeds Office MarketCurrent Position  We now have a fully functioning multi-criteria model of the commercial real estate market in the UK - this has never been done before. Alongside the perennial importance of ‘location, location, location’ we now have ‘evidence, evidence, evidence.’  We have the ability to apply this methodology to any geographical area in England, Wales and Scotland.  The last dataset provided by the Government regarding property market vitality was published in 2005 (a local authority  scale estimate); it is still being used to inform current policy initiatives such as the recent permitted development right rule changes regarding office to residential conversion.Subsequent research Our model is based on national property valuation and tax information This has allowed us to explore and feed into the current devolution and fiscal decentralisation debate. We have submitted and subsequently been called as expert witnesses to:– All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) round table on Reform, Decentralisation and Devolution in the UK, and – Communities and Local Government (CLG) Select Committee review of business rate retention.Some questions? Devolution is happening but what are its consequences for the region? Is the ‘Northern Powerhouse’ more than just a brand? Devolution is underwritten by business rate retention and that means the performance of existing commercial property and the development of new property stock How will the stock of commercial and industrial property and supply of new build influence local government funding in the region?  There is much confusion and little detail about financialisation of real estate  - we hope to shed some light on these matters Why is this important? Towns and cities need to make best use of existing property and plan new development accordingly – currently there isn't any evidence base! Our model provides evidence for:– More efficient land use planning– Economic development strategies – Business rate retention planning– Monitoring and simulation of contemporary methods of urban intervention such as:• Tax Increment Financing (general and new development deal),• Enterprise Zones• other retained business rate models such as Accelerated Development Zones One way or another, public sector service provision is now pegged against the performance of commercial real estate; we can monitor this performance and direct its potential improvement.Opportunity knocks: Not just about LAs No representation from landlord or development sectors into these enquiries – missed opportunity!  Did you know that Local authorities make more money out of Empty Property Rates than business activity? –opportunity to reform Empty Property Rates Real estate development funds devolution – opportunity for landlords and developers to take centre stage and lead the devolution debate How will business occupiers and small businesses be affected by the way property markets respond to challenges?and finally... What do you think?– First impressions What can else could we do?– Identify potential to extend application Have we missed any tricks?– Identify new opportunities Let us help you – give us access to your dataAny thoughts to:– Dr Paul Greenhalgh: paul.greenhalgh@northumbria.ac.uk– Dr Kevin Muldoon-Smith: kevin.muldoon-smith@northumbria.ac.ukR3intelligence is dedicated to supplying high quality impartial commercial real estate research and advice. Request an exploratory meeting with either Dr Paul Greenhalgh or Dr Muldoon-Smith Dr Paul Greenhalgh,  R3Intelligence Lead, Tel: 0191 227 4593,  paul.greenhalgh@r3intelligence.co.uk Dr Kevin Muldoon-Smith,  R3Intelligence Consultant, Tel: 07739 321643  kevin.muldoonsmith@r3intelligence.co.uk www.R3Intelligence.co.uk

Devolution and the role of Commercial Real Estate Development

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