Peramalan Perencanaan Produksi Semen dengan Metode Exponential Smoothing pada PT. Semen Indonesia

Abstract

[Forecasting for Cement Production Planning with Exponential Smoothing Method in PT Semen Indonesia] By increasing the production target of cement in PT Semen Indonesia, production planning should be done properly. So this far, in materials planning and production section of PT Semen Indonesia has not used any tools or methods in determining the production planning. It may cause a significant difference between production planning and actual release. The occurrence of this difference may cause effects that may result in losses for the company, such as the case of averstock or stockout.This study aims to get an appropriate method as the basis or reference in production planning and to forecast a result that could be used in production planning. In doing a forecast, there are several steps that should be done to get better forecast results.Based on the historical data, exponential smoothing method is used for the forecasting. By the result, 15048 (thousand tons) of cement should be produced in 2016 for PT. Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.* Penulis Penanggung Jawa