Tomasini, Emilio

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Almae Matris Studiorum Campus

2012 12 13 newsletter Corporate Valuation n. 2

CORPORATE VALUATION NEWSLETTER NUMBER 2 ON DATE 14 DECEMBER 2012 QUIZZES 1) The discounted cash flow valuation does not consider risk at all just expected value: True False 2) Assets that generate cash flows early in their life will be worth more than assets that generate cash flows later True False It depends  3) The “asset side” valuation is FCFF FCFE Neither  4) How can you compute the Equity Value ? Subtract out the value of debt from the firm value Subtract out the value of equity from the debt value Add on the value of debt to the firm value  5) In the following table there is an error in the title of the columns ? Year Cash flow to equity  Net capex Cash Flow to Firm Year  Cash Flow to Equity Net Capex Cash Flow To Firm 1 50 40 90 2 60 40 100 3 68 40 108 4 76.2 40 116.2 5 83.49 40 123.49    6) What is the relationship between Dividend Discount Model and FCFE ? The Dividend discount model takes into consideration the net dividend that is D*(1-t) The FCFE is based on net income while divided will be taxed when paid out from the company Not all the FCFE is distributed as a dividend so that theoretically they could be the same only if dividend are fully distributed 7) Why in conclusion Firm evaluation is much more difficult than straight Equity Valuation ?  8) What is cost of equity ?  Cost of equity = risk free rate + beta * (equity risk premium) Cost of equity = risk free rate + beta * ( Market Expected Return – risk free rate) Cost of equity = implied equity risk premium  9) Why a government bond is risk free only if it is held up to expiration ? Is it true ?  10) Which one of the following bonds usually is considered a government risk free rate bond ? A 3 months Treasury bill A ten year Treasury bond rate A thirty year Treasury bond rate A TIPS rate ? None of the above   11) What is the main drawback in historical risk premium ? Or there are more than one single drawback ? It has no statistical significance on a yearly basis It depends on the calculation methodology: arithmetic or geometric average Survivorship bias 12) What is the ultimate effect in terms of return of capital after capitalizing  R&D expenses and converting Operating Leases into debt ?  13) When arithmetic average and geometric average are the same ?    14) What is a multiple in valuation ? Numerator = what you are getting for the asset / Denominator = what you are paying for the asset Numerator = what you are paying for the asset / Denominator = what is the valuation of you asset Numerator = what you are paying for the asset / Denominator = what is the market valuation of your asset  15) If a Multiple historical series is not normally distributed what will be the effect of this on our valuation process ?  16) If a firm A is not in the same business sector of another firm B but they have the same risk, growth and cash flow characteristics  They are not comparable for multiple valuation They are comparable for multiple valuation It depends Non of the above   17) Why higher growth firms will have higher PE ratios than lower growth ratios ?  18) The  PE ratio behavious relative to Intetest rates and GDP  PE + => Intereste Rates – => GDP +  PE + => Intereste Rates – => GDP - PE + => Intereste Rates + => GDP - 19) Which one of the following statement is true ? Real cash flows should be discounted at nominal interest rates  FCFE should be discounted at the weighted average cost of capital  FCFF should be discounted at the weighted average cost of capital  None of the above   20) To be risk free and investment must not be characterized:  Default risk Reinvestment risk Default risk and reinvestment risk 21) FCFE  They are different from dividend since they can be negative  They can be considered a proxy for potential dividend  Both the previous replies are correct  None of the above is correct   NEW EXERCISE Piadina Intercontinental is the leading manufacturer of piadine in Forlì. In the last year Piadina Intercontinental’s operating margin - EBIT(1-T) -  is $ 5 millions, capital expenditure $4 millions and amortization 2 millions. Non-cash working capital at the end of the year was $10 millions. If we suppose that operating margin – EBIT (1-t) will grow 20% next year and all other variables will grow at the same rate (capex, amortization and non-cash working capital) let’s esteem the FCFF for next year (3 point). If Piadina Intercontinental will grow 20% in the next 5 years (as we supposed in the first year), please gauge the today’s value of the expected FCFF in the next 5 years. Take into consideration a 12% cost of capital (3 points). After the fifth year, expected FCFF (relative to year 6) will be 10,51, cost of capital will go down to 10% and growth will be 5%. Do gauge the value of Piadina Intercontinental at the end of the fifth year and present current value (note: cost of capital in the first 5 years is 12% but from year 6th on is 10%) (4 points)  Year 1 2 3 4 5                                             SOLUTIONS TO THE PREVIOUS EXCERCISES 1.  You  have  been  asked  to  assess  the  implied  risk  premium  on  the  Timbuktu  Stock Exchange (TSE). The index is trading at 1050, and the dividend yield  is  3%.  The  current long  term  bond  rate  is  6.5%,  and  the  expected  long  term  nominal  growth  rate  in  the economy is 6%. Estimate the implied risk premium for equities. Dividends on Index = 3% of 1050 = 31.50 Value = 1050 = 31.50 (1.06)/(r-.06) Solving for r,  r = 9.18% Implied Risk Premium = 9.18% - 6.5% = 2.68% If you assumed that the dividend yield was based on next year's dividends, Value = 1050 = 31.50/(r-.06) Sovling for r, r = 9.00% Implied Risk Premium = 9% - 6.5% = 2.5% This answer can also be obtained by adding the dividend yield to expected growth and subtracting out the risk free rate [This is how we got cost of equity for Southwestern Bell in the notes.]  2. You have been provided the following information on CEL Inc, a manufacturer of highend stereo systems. In the most recent year, which was a bad one, the company made only $  40 million in net income. It expects next year  to  be  more  normal.  The  book  value  of  equity  at  the company is $  1  billion,  and  the  average return  on  equity  over  the  previous  10  years (assumed to be a normal period) was 10%. The company expects to make $  80  million  in  new  capital  expenditures  next  year. It expects depreciation, which was $ 60 million this year, to grow 10% next year. The  company  had revenues  of  $  1.5  billion  this  year,  and  it  maintained  a  non-cash working capital investment  of  10%  of revenues. It  expects revenues  to  increase  20% next year and working capital to decline to 9.5% of revenues. The firm expects to maintain its existing debt policy (in market value terms). The market value of equity is $  1.5 billion and the book value of  equity  is  500  million.  The  debt outstanding (in both book and market terms) is $ 500 million. Estimate the FCFE next year.  Net Income   $     100.00  (1000 * .10 = Normal Net Income)  - (Net Cap Ex * .75)  $       10.50   (Capital Expenditures: $ 80 mil; Depreciation = $ 60(1.1) = $ 66; D/(D+E) = 500/(500+1500))  - Chg in WC * .75  $       15.75  (WC this year = .10 *1500 = 150; WC next year = .095 * 1800 = 171; Chg in WC = 21)  = FCFE  $       73.75    3. Cello Inc. is a manufacturer of pianos. It earned an after-tax return on capital of 10% last year and expects to maintain this next year. If the current years after-tax operating income is $ 100 million and the firm reinvests 50% of this income back, estimate the free cash flow to the firm next year.(After-tax Operating Income = EBIT (1-t)] Expected Growth Rate in Operating Income = 10%(.5) = 5% Expected FCFF next year EBIT (1-t)  $     105.00  Reinvestment  $       52.50  FCFF  $       52.50   4. You are trying to estimate the expected free cash flow  next  year for Brown  Forman,  a leading U.S.  wine  and spirits  producer. In  1996, Brown  Forman  had  after-tax  operating income [EBIT(1-t)] of $  235 million; it had a book value of equity  of  $  730  million  and book value of debt of $ 210 million. Assume that you expect after-tax operating income to grow 10% in 1997, and no change in the firm’s after-tax return on capital. Estimate the free cash flow to the firm in 1997. Expected Operating Income next year = 235*1.10 = 258.5  - Reinvestment Needed = .40 * 258.5 = 103.4 FCFF next year = 155.1 Return on Capital = 235/940 = 25% Expected Growth Rate = Reinvestment Rate * Return on Capital 10% = Reinvestment Rate * 25% Reinvestment Rate = 10%/25% = 0.40  

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2012 12 13 newsletter Corporate Valuation n. 2

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Almae Matris Studiorum Campus

Almae Matris Studiorum Campus