Prediction of Grapevine Yield Based on Reproductive Variables and the Influence of Meteorological Conditions

Abstract

Climate has a direct influence on crop development and final yield. The consequences of global climate change have appeared during the last decades, with increasing weather variability in many world regions. One of the derived problems is the maintenance of food supply in this unstable context and the needed changes in agricultural systems, looking for sustainable and adaptation strategies. The study was carried out from 2008 to 2017. Aerobiological data were obtained with a Lanzoni VPPS-2000 volumetric sampler, following the Spanish Aerobiological Network protocol. The pollen and flower production was studied on ten vines of the Godello grapevine cultivar. A HOBO Micro Station and a MeteoGalicia station were used to obtain meteorological information. We observed the detrimental effect of rain on airborne pollen presence, and we statistically corroborated the negative effect of high temperatures on fruit set and ripening. We developed an accurate multiple regression model to forecast the grape yield, applying a Spearman’s correlation test to identify the most influential variables. The use of aerobiological and meteorological studies for crop yield prediction has been widely used in different crops that suppose important engines for economy development. This enables growers to adapt their crop management and adjust the spent resourcesThis work was funded by Xunta de Galicia CITACA Strategic Partnership (Reference: ED431E 2018/07), the AGL2014-60412-R Economy and Competence Ministry of Spain Government project and the VITICAST 20190020007473 project of the Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Ministry of Spain Government. González-Fernández E. was supported by the Ministry of Sciences, Innovation and Universities (FPU grant FPU15/03343). Piña-Rey A. was supported by Xunta de Galicia Pre-doctoral Period Support Program (ED481A-2017/xxx). Fernández-González M. was supported by FCT (SFRH/BPD/125686/2016) through the HCOP-Human Capital Operational Program, financed by “Fundo Social Europeu” and “Fundos Nacionais do MCTESS