The City of Winnipeg and 15 surrounding urban and rural municipalities form the Capital Region of Manitoba (see Figure 1). Between 1996 and 2001, these surrounding municipalities captured a large majority of the region’s population growth.1 Much of this growth has been bedroom community development. The most recent census data shows that some 16,700 people in outlying municipalities commute to jobs located within Winnipeg.2 Population growth has also been characterized by the creation of ex-urban residential landscapes consisting of large homes on large lots. Examples of such development are readily conspicuous in both the Henderson Highway and Main Street corridors running north out of Winnipeg and in villages such as La Salle to the south of the city.

This report examines the imprint ex-urban population growth is making on the spatial distribution of income within the Capital Region. Using data from the 1991 and 2001 Census of Canada, the analysis focuses on both current geographic patterns of average household income and how those patterns changed over time. A comparison with metropolitan centres of Saskatchewan and Alberta is also included

Lorch, Brian

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1In t r o d u c t i o nThe City of Winnipeg and 15 surrounding urban and rural municipalities form the Capital Region of Manitoba(see Figure 1). Between 1996 and 2001, these surrounding municipalities captured a large majority of theregion’s population growth.1 Much of this growth has been bedroom community development. The mostrecent census data shows that some 16,700 people in outlying municipalities commute to jobs locatedwithin Winnipeg.2 Population growth has also been characterized by the creation of ex-urban residentiallandscapes consisting of large homes on large lots. Examples of such development are readily conspicuousin both the Henderson Highway and Main Street corridors running north out of Winnipeg and in villagessuch as La Salle to the south of the city.This report examines the imprint ex-urban population growth is making on the spatial distribution of incomewithin the Capital Region. Using data from the 1991 and 2001 Census of Canada, the analysis focuses onboth current geographic patterns of average household income and how those patterns changed over time.A comparison with metropolitan centres of Saskatchewan and Alberta is also included.R e g i o n a l  O v e r v ie wThe Capital Region is home to 284,000 households. In 2000, they earned an average income of $54,443.3Table 1 and Figure 2 reveal a large degree of variability in income levels within the region. Headingley,with an average income of $96,000 leads all municipalities but is followed closely by East and West St.Paul. All three of these municipalities have income levels that are approximately 1.7 times the CapitalRegion average.A second tier consisting of eight rural municipalities are clustered in the $60,000 – $70,000 householdincome range. This represents a 10 – 25% increment over the Capital regional average.URBAN STUDIESINSTITUTE OFUNIVERSITY OF WINNIPEGSuit e103-520 Por tage AvenueWinnipeg, MB R3C 0G2Phone: (204) 982-1140Fax: (204) 943-4695www.uwinnipeg.ca/~iusResea r chH igh l igh t sBr ia n  Lo r ch , Sen io r  Resea r ch  Assoc ia t eResea r ch  H igh l igh t  2003 -1Novembe r  2003T h e G e o g r ap h y o f  In c ome w i t h inM a n i t o b a’s C a pi t a l  R e g i o n23Table 1   Average Household Income within Capital Region Municipalities      as Compared to Manitoba and Canadian Averages, 2000Municipality $ Average                            % of  Capital RegionHousehold Income   Average IncomeTier 1   Headingley [RM] 96,173 176.6    East St. Paul [RM] 92,299 169.5    West St. Paul [RM] 91,414 167.9Tier 2    St. François Xavier [RM] 69,751 128.1    Macdonald [RM] 69,475 127.6    St. Andrews [RM] 65,480 120.3    Ritchot [RM] 62,835 115.4   Springfield [RM] 62,589 115.0    Taché [RM] 61,714 113.4    St. Clements [RM] 61,459 112.9    Rockwood [RM] 60,149 110.5Tier 3    Rosser [RM] 58,756 107.9    Cartier [RM] 58,719 107.9    Stonewall [T] 55,953 102.8    Winnipeg [C] 53,176   97.7Tier 4    Selkirk [C] 46,487   85.4Capital Region 54,443Manitoba 50,756Canada 58,360Source:  Census of Canada, 200145A third but smaller tier of municipalities are found in the $50,000 – $60,000 range, a level that falls within10% of the regional average. The lower end of this range is occupied by two urban municipalities, theTown of Stonewall and the City of Winnipeg.A fourth and final tier is formed by the Town of Selkirk. With an average income of  approximately $46,500,it has the distinction of having the lowest income level within the region and one that is more than 10%below the regional average. That Selkirk along with Winnipeg and Stonewall form the lower end of theregion’s income distribution is not surprising. Urban centres, especially a larger one like Winnipeg, generallyprovide a much wider array of social services and offer a greater choice of more affordable housing forthose in need of social support. As well, there is a greater demand for low paid, service sector workers in alarge urban centre which serves to counterbalance and reduce overall average income levels. This point isfurther demonstrated by Figure 3 which shows the percentage of households in each municipality earningan income of at least $100,000. One-third of East St. Paul households and more than one-fifth of West St.Paul and Headingley households fall into this category.  For the City of Winnipeg, the comparable proportionis one in ten.Lastly, Table 1 provides an indication of where income levels within the Capital Region stand relative to provincialand national averages. On the whole, Capital Region households enjoy incomes that are about seven percenthigher than the Manitoba provincial average but also seven percent less than the average Canadian household.R e g i o n a l  In c ome D y n ami c sBetween 1990 and 2000, average household income in the Capital Region rose by nearly $12,000 or justover 27%.  As Table 2 indicates, this pace of growth was comparable to that experienced by both Manitobaand Canada as a whole. When adjusted for inflation, however, increases in income barely reach one percentmeaning that the real purchasing power of household earnings changed very little during the 1990s.Table 2 Change in Average Household Income, 1990-2000Geographical Unit Income Income % change1990 2000Capital Region 42,779 54,443 27.3Manitoba 40,179 50,756 26.3Canada 46,137 58,360 26.5Source:  1991 and 2001 Census of Canada67Just as income levels vary across the Capital Region, so too has the rate at which incomes have increased.Figure 4 provides a glimpse of how each municipality’s status within the region changed between 1990 and2000 based on an index of relative income growth. The index was tabulated by expressing the averagehousehold income in each municipality as a percentage of the regional average income for both 1990 and2000 and then dividing the 2000 percentage by the 1990 percentage. 4 An index value of more than oneindicates income growth at the municipal level outpaced growth at the regional level. An index value lessthan one reflects the opposite scenario.0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Rosser SelkirkSpringfieldWinnipegCartierRitchot Macdonald St. Andrew s Stonew allTaché St. Clements Rockw ood East St. Paul St. FrançoisWest St. Paul Index of Relative Income GrowthFigure 4     Relative Rate of Growth in Average Household Incomes, 1990-20001Results of the income index calculations reveal a strong positive association between income levels andthe pace of relative income growth.  In six municipalities income growth lagged behind the regional average(i.e., index values < 1). Two of these, Winnipeg and Selkirk, had the lowest average household income ofany Capital Region municipality in 1990. At the opposite end of the growth rate spectrum, a similar patternemerges. East and West St Paul, two of the highest income municipalities in the region in 1990, saw theiraverage incomes increase at rates 1.5 to 2 times the regional average. To confirm the trend suggested bythese cases, growth index values were regressed against 1990 income levels. The result was a strong positivelinear relationship with an R2 value of .96.8Av e r a g e H o u s e h o l d In c ome w i t h i n W i n n ip e gFor the purposes of tabulating census data with large metropolitan centres, Statistics Canada divides suchcentres into smaller geographical units called census tracts. For the 2001 census, Winnipeg was partitionedinto 154 tracts.In 2000, Winnipeg households earned an average income of $53,176. At the census tract level, incomevaried from a low of just under $20,000 to a high of just over $142,000. This range of $120,000 is doublethe range found amongst the 16 municipalities of the Capital Region.The spatial pattern of average household income in Winnipeg is best described as a series of concentricrings roughly centred on the downtown core (see Figure 5).5  Thirteen tracts recorded average incomes ofless than $30,000. Spatially, these tracts are clustered in the downtown core and in a wedge extending northalong Main Street and then west along Logan. Surrounding this inner core is a band of tracts, most of whichhave below average income levels. The shape of the band is somewhat distorted, being much broader in thenorthern half of the city. In general, its location corresponds with the city’s major industrial belts associatedwith the airport, the CP rail corridor and CN’s Symington Yards in Transcona.  In the southern portion ofthe city, the band is more ribbon shaped. It follows the Pembina Highway corridor and encompasses theFort Garry industrial park.The final ring of tracts is comprised of those with average incomes greater than $60,000. Except for acouple of breaks, it completely encircles the city. Within this ring are some notable enclaves denoted bymuch higher average income levels. Notably, all of these enclaves are located in the southwest quadrant ofthe city. The Wellington Crescent, Tuxedo and River Park West/Southboine neighbourhoods are favouredby proximity to the Assiniboine River and/or large tracts of green space. Located further to the south ofTuxedo along the Route 90 corridor are the Lindenwoods and Whyte Ridge subdivisions.In c o me D y n ami c s w i t h i n W i n n ip e gWhen corrected for inflation, the increase in overall average household income in Winnipeg between 1990and 2000 is almost imperceptible. The same cannot be said for individual census tracts (see Figure 6).More than one half of the tracts recorded a decrease in real income with 17 posting declines in excess of10%. Such tracts can be found in almost every corner of the city but generally are most prevalent in thecore, north end, St. James and in the Pembina Highway corridor. Two interesting cases are the WellingtonCrescent and River Park West/Southboine tracts. These neighbourhoods are amongst the wealthiest in thecity yet real income levels declined in both. This possibly can be explained by the presence of an agingpopulation whose income has been reduced by retirement and/or by the competition of estate-sized lotsfound in outlying municipalities.About one-third of the tracts recorded increases in real income with 12 posting gains greater than 10%.Tracts with real gains tend to be located on the outer edges of the north, east, southeast and southwest sidesof the city and hence, are associated with newer subdivision developments. Prominent examples are theIsland Lakes and Whyte Ridge residential areas. Important to note also are the gains recorded by someinner-city neighbourhoods in old St. Boniface and on the north side of the downtown core. Increases here,albeit built upon a low 1990 income level, are perhaps reflective of re-investment in the older housingstock of the inner city.91011T h e P r a i r ie C o n t e x tFigure 7 shows how income in various Prairie constituencies compares with that earned by the averageCanadian household. Manitoba households earn about 90% of the Canadian average, a position that has notchanged since 1990. Incomes in Winnipeg and the Capital Region fare slightly better against the nationalaverage but again, their relative position moved very little over the 1990s.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140ManitobaCity of WinnipegCapital RegionEdmonton CMACalgary CMASaskatoon CMARegina CMA% of Canadian Average20001990Figure 7   Average Household Income as a Percentage of the Canadian Average, 1990 & 2000In neighbouring Saskatchewan, the performance of Saskatoon closely parallels that of the Capital Region.Regina households come closer to meeting the Canadian average but have seen their position slip overtime.  Income levels in both Manitoba and Saskatchewan trail behind those of Alberta’s two metropolitancentres. In Calgary, average household income is 27% above the national average. Moreover, Calgary’sposition compared to the national average improved by 13 percentage points during the 1990s. The trend inEdmonton is similar but less striking. In 1990, households there earned on average 102% of the Canadianaverage. By 2000, this had increased to 106%.C o n c l u s i o nAverage household income within the Capital Region ranges widely. In some Winnipeg inner cityneighbourhoods such as Dufferin, Centennial, Sargent Park and Point Douglas, household income averagesless than $30,000. Suburbs in the city’s southwest quadrant have incomes three to four times higher. Averageincome levels in most outlying municipalities are at least 10% higher than Winnipeg’s average. Twoexceptions are the urban municipalities of Selkirk and Stonewall.12Increasing average income levels correspond strongly with suburban population growth. Within Winnipeg,neighbourhoods with concentrations of new up-market residential construction such as Whyte Ridge,Lindenwoods, and Island Lakes posted large gains in average income in the 1990s. Similar trends haveoccurred in a few neighbouring rural municipalities. In East St. Paul, incomes rose half again as fast as theydid in the Capital Region as whole. In West St. Paul, the pace of income growth was more than twice theregional average. These increases reflect the large share of ex-urban, large lot residential development thathas occurred in both municipalities. Meanwhile, in some older, well-established high-income areas wherepopulation is aging in place (e.g., the Wellington Crescent and River Park West neighbourhoods), relativeincome levels have actually begun to decline.Lastly, the spatial pattern of population and income growth experienced in the 1990s corresponds closelywith recent patterns of suburban retail development. During the late 1990s, the Winnipeg market witnessedan explosion of big box retail development.6 Not surprisingly, much of this development has followed thegeography of purchasing power. In southwest Winnipeg, an entire new suburban shopping node has emergedat the Kenaston/McGillivray intersection. On the city’s north eastern flank, significant retail expansion atthe intersection of Regent and Lagimodiere is strategically positioned to capture the growing market ofEast St. Paul as is the redevelopment of the Unicity site to garner market growth beyond the city’s westernlimits. Interestingly, all of this growth in retail space has remained near the periphery but still within theWinnipeg city limits. If, however, population and income growth beyond the perimeter highway continueto outpace that of city proper over the next one or two census periods, retail development may too begin tospill into surrounding rural municipalities. Notes1 See Lorch, B. 2002. “Population Growth Beyond the Perimeter” Institute of Urban Studies, ResearchHighlight 2002-1 (http://io.uwinnipeg.ca/~ius/Research/research_highlights.htm)2 See “Rural-urban commuting woes work both ways”  Winnipeg Free Press, February 12, 2003, A10.3 As the Canadian Census is conducted at mid-year, respondents are asked to report income for theprevious calendar year. Hence, the census conducted in June, 2001 records income for the year 2000.4  Headingley is excluded from this analysis. At the time of the 1991 Census, it formed a part of the Cityof Winnipeg.5 The concentric ring model of urban socio-economic development was first proposed by Ernest Burgessin the 1920s. Burgess’ model predicted that socio-economic status would increase as distance from thedowntown core increased thereby placing the wealthiest neighbourhoods on outer edge of the city.6 See Lorch, B. 2002. “A Comparative Analysis of Major Suburban Shopping Nodes in Winnipeg”Winnipeg: Institute of Urban Studies, Research Paper 40, 2002.

The Geography of Income Within Manitoba's Capital Region

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The Geography of Income Within Manitoba's Capital Region

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