This article is based on the study, Strategies and Options for Increasing and Sustaining Benefits from Fisheries and Aquaculture Production to Benefit Poor Households in Asia carried out under ADB-RETA 5945, and implemented by the WorldFish Center in partnership with nine participating Asian countries

Ahmed, M.

Briones, M.

Dey, M.M.

English

Aquatic Commons

NAGA, WorldFish Center Quarterly  Vol. 27 No. 3 & 4 Jul-Dec 200448
articles
The future for fi sh in the food and livelihoods 
of the poor in Asia 
Asia is the world’s leading fi sh producer. It 
accounts for over 63 percent of total fi sh 
production, and as much as 90 percent of 
all aquaculture output. Low value fi sheries 
and aquaculture, which contribute 
signifi cantly to the livelihoods of poor 
households, make up an important part 
of this production. Fish is, furthermore, 
an important part of Asian diets. In 
Bangladesh, Indonesia and the Philippines 
it comprises 50 percent of animal protein 
intake, while in Thailand and Vietnam its 
share is 40 percent. It is the major—and 
often the only—source of animal protein 
for the poor.
With rising population and demand, 
expansion of supplies to maintain food 
security has emerged as a priority 
concern for developing countries in 
Asia. However, looming on the horizon 
are threats to fi sh supplies and fi shery 
livelihoods such as resource degradation, 
weak public support and investment, and 
worsening inequities in global trade. Key 
questions emerging from this scenario 
are: given existing trends in supply and 
demand, what are the prospects for the 
availability of fi sh in the future? Is there 
room for growth in fi sheries production, 
in particular, aquaculture? Can the 
expansion of trade be sustained? What 
are the available options for meeting the 
rising demand and improving livelihoods 
from fi sh production? From this set 
of options, what are the appropriate 
strategies for increasing and sustaining 
benefi ts to poor households from 
fi sheries and aquaculture?
To address these questions, the WorldFish 
Center and national research partners 
(both in government and the academic 
community) have engaged in a project 
on “Fish Supply and Demand in Asia”. 
The project, supported by the Asian 
Development Bank, was initiated in 2000 
following a request from a number of 
Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, 
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Sri 
Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam). These nine 
countries are active players in global 
fi sh markets; they account for over half 
of all fi sh production and consumption; 
furthermore, fi sh production has been 
increasing in these countries by double 
the global average since the 1990s. Fish 
exports from these countries have also 
expanded steadily, by 3.6 percent on 
average each year in the decade; for some 
growth has been very rapid—exports 
from China have exploded by more than 
15 percent per year on average over this 
period. Due for completion by end-2004, 
the project is already emerging as a 
landmark study for the development of 
the fi sheries and aquaculture sector, both 
regionally and globally.
The project is divided into fi ve 
components. The fi rst component 
profi les key technologies in aquaculture 
and fi sheries. This profi le identifi es 
options for fi sh production as well as 
priority technologies and production 
practices for delivering benefi ts to 
the poor and to the environment. The 
second component analyzes policies, 
the institutional environment and the 
support-services system, to assess policy 
options for the development of fi sheries 
and aquaculture. The third component 
draws a socioeconomic profi le of major 
stakeholders in fi sheries and aquaculture, 
covering producers, consumers and the 
marketing system. The fourth component 
analyzes projections for fi sh supply and 
demand in the nine Asian countries using 
the AsiaFish model, a multi-product 
disaggregated model of the fi sh sector 
especially constructed for this project. 
The fi fth component is to formulate 
National Action Plans based on the 
fi ndings and recommendations of the 
study, for integration into the regular 
plans, policies and work programs of the 
participating countries.
The links between the research 
components of the project may be traced 
in Figure 1. Supply (for domestic use and 
for export) and demand (from domestic 
sources and for imports) interact in fi sh 
markets, which results in a price and 
quantity at which supply and demand 
are balanced. On one side, fi sh supply is 
determined according to the biological 
environment, the technology used, the 
policy and institutional environment, 
and the producer’s profi le. Likewise, the 
demand side is infl uenced by policy and 
the profi le of consumers. Changes in 
any of these factors result in changes in 
supply, demand, trade and prices. Each of 
these factors is covered in the research 
components, providing a comprehensive 
analysis of strategies and options for the 
development of the fi sh sector.
Central to the analysis is the AsiaFish 
model, which is composed of country-
specifi c fi sh-sector models designed 
for highly disaggregated analysis of fi sh 
types, i.e., at a level typically available in 
national fi sh sector statistics. Common 
fi sh types such as shrimp, tilapia and the 
carps, are refl ected in the model, with 
15 being the maximum number of fi sh 
types (found in the ‘Indonesia’ model). 
The model incorporates characteristics of 
production and consumption that set fi sh 
apart from other types of commodities. 
M. Briones, M.M. Dey and M. Ahmed
49NAGA, WorldFish Center Quarterly  Vol. 27 No. 3 & 4 Jul-Dec 2004
articles
It takes an approach, novel in food sector 
modeling, of incorporating imports and 
exports in terms of product differentiation 
within total domestic demand and 
supply, respectively (the “Armington 
approach”). Domestic markets can also 
be differentiated by region (e.g., urban-
rural, urban-rural-central). The response 
parameters of the model are based on 
large-scale survey data on the demand 
side, combined with detailed cross-section 
and time series data on the supply side. 
The AsiaFish model can be used to 
evaluate the effect of rising population and 
income, technical progress, and changes 
in policy. Projections can be made for 
fi sh production in capture fi sheries and 
aquaculture (by source, i.e., freshwater vs. 
marine or brackish); consumption of fi sh 
types by region; exports and import by 
fi sh types; as well as producer prices and 
retail prices by fi sh type.
The fi ndings from the technology profi ling 
identifi ed priority technologies based 
on criteria of equity, effi ciency and 
sustainability. These are: the aquaculture of 
low-value species (carps, tilapia, milkfi sh, 
etc.); seed production of low-value 
species (tilapia, milkfi sh); community-based 
fi sh culture in fl ood plains; and small-scale 
fi sheries (especially those using targeted 
gears, such as hook-and-line or gill-net). 
Polyculture is the preferred system for 
low-value aquaculture, though in some 
countries monoculture of tilapia or carp 
(e.g., in the Philippines or Indonesia) 
may be pro-poor. Further expansion of 
fi sh culture and culture-based fi sheries 
is strongly indicated for farming areas 
and inland waters, including integrated 
aquaculture-agriculture (e.g., rice–fi sh) 
systems.
Meanwhile the income profi les of both 
fi shers and fi sh farmers confi rm the 
pervasiveness of poverty in these sectors. 
The poorest households tend to be 
engaged in inland fi shing though even 
among marine fi shers and freshwater 
fi sh farmers there is a wide variation 
in household incomes, with the lower 
end landing among the poorest of the 
poor. In fi sh farming there is evidence of 
considerable ineffi ciency in extensive and 
semi-intensive farms. Farmers working 
on intensive systems are generally 
more effi cient. For poor fi sh farmers, 
a more appropriate system appears to 
be semi-intensive polyculture (or even 
monoculture in some areas). The twin 
approaches of developing and diffusing 
technology, along with the necessary 
extension work to make more effi cient 
use of technology and resources at 
the farm level, form the elements of 
a balanced process of aquaculture 
development. Extension and education 
programs to reduce management 
ineffi ciency are best targeted to poorer 
farmers who tend to fall under extensive 
to semi-intensive systems. Meanwhile 
technology development and adoption 
programs are also needed to reach 
better-off farmers, who tend to culture 
fi sh under more intensive systems, as 
well as to increase overall aquaculture 
productivity in the long run.
Fish consumption analysis also confi rms 
the high dependence of the poor on 
fi sh. In the Philippines, India, and Vietnam 
there is an unmistakable rise in the 
percentage of fi sh in animal protein intake 
as household income drops; the pattern is 
less evident but still present in Bangladesh. 
Examinations of demand response, stated 
in terms of “elasticities” (a measure of 
the strength of the response to price 
and income changes) fi nd the following: 
the disaggregation of “fi sh” into its 
various types matters; price and income 
elasticities vary for different types of 
fi sh and across income classes; demand 
is price elastic for most fi sh categories, 
but is less elastic for low value species 
like carp; income elasticities (even for the 
rich) are positive and quite high. It is likely, 
therefore, that when per capita income 
increases, the demand for fi sh in Asia will 
increase substantially, but the species mix 
will change.
The AsiaFish model generates a 
number of projections on production, 
consumption and trade from the current 
period to 2020. Highlights of the analysis 
include the following:
• All countries are likely to produce 
more fi sh between 2005 and 2020, 
but the rate of increase will slow 
down. Gains may range from a low 
of just 0.2 percent annually in the 
Philippines to 3.5 percent in Sri Lanka.
• The gains will continue to be 
dominated by aquaculture with 
China, Malaysia and Thailand likely to 
experience the largest increases in 
output.
j
Biological 
Environment
Aquaculture 
and Fisheries 
Technology
Policy, 
Institutions 
& Support 
Services
Producers’ 
Profile
Policy
Consumers’ 
Profile
j
j
j
Export Import
Consumption
j
j
j
j
j
j
Production
Figure 1. The ‘Fish Supply and Demand’ study.
NAGA, WorldFish Center Quarterly  Vol. 27 No. 3 & 4 Jul-Dec 200450
articles
• With few exceptions, fi sh imports and 
exports are likely to increase. China 
will likely be the dominant exporter 
among the nine countries in 2020, 
accounting for about 52 percent of 
total exports, while Southeast Asia’s 
share is likely to decline. However, 
market access restrictions in fi sh 
trade, such as the imposition of food 
safety standards, may noticeably 
affect exports. Secondary information 
suggests that the negative impact will 
be more severe for poor fi shers, fi sh 
farmers, and processors (particularly 
those still working with traditional 
technologies). 
• Trends in capture fi sheries (usually 
zero growth or modest declines) 
will not unduly endanger overall 
fi sh supplies; however, the decline 
of fi sheries in Bangladesh and the 
Philippines is a cause for concern 
given the potential repercussions for 
fi sh consumption. 
• Per capita consumption in some 
of the high-consumption countries 
(Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the 
Philippines) will likely decline, as 
demand growth outpaces the growth 
of supply and imports. Averting this 
will probably entail faster productivity 
growth in aquaculture.
Given all these fi ndings, new national 
action plans have supported a number of 
priority policy responses, including: 
• increased support to poor processors 
and producers of exportable 
fi sh, particularly with respect to 
compliance with international product 
standards;
• adoption of community-based or 
collective action approaches in the 
management of fi shery resources, 
both inland and marine, as well as in 
other commercial aspects of fi shing, 
i.e., in fi sh trade and marketing;
• rigorous implementation of other 
management measures in capture 
fi sheries such as protection and 
restoration of critical habitats, 
removal of excess fi shing capacity, 
restrictions on potentially destructive 
gears, and provision of alternative 
livelihoods for small fi shers;
• rural infrastructure development 
for improved marketing of fi sh; 
promotion of investments in hatchery 
and input distribution systems 
for the sustained and widespread 
dissemination of quality fi ngerlings;
• increased investments in the extent 
and quality of extension to reduce 
technical ineffi ciencies in fi sh culture; 
and
• more research to increase 
productivity of priority species, e.g., 
selective breeding of carp, as well as 
the development of technologies to 
reduce costs of fi sh farming (e.g., low-
input systems, alternative feeds).
The abovementioned research fi ndings 
and action statements are already a 
valuable set of outputs from the project. 
One should not, however, underestimate 
the intangible benefi ts from the entire 
process: fi rst, the national workshops 
and the fi nal regional workshop 
have served to elevate fi sh and the 
poor to prominence in development 
discussions and debates, both nationally 
and regionally. Second, the study has 
generated a storehouse of information 
useful for policymakers and researchers, 
systematically documented in terms of 
profi les for production, consumption, 
trade and the policy environment. Third, 
there has been a considerable build-up of 
research capacity among the participating 
countries. This includes the capacity 
to undertake systematic, quantitative 
approaches to sectoral planning at the 
national level, with the appropriate tools, 
such as the AsiaFish models, to aid in the 
process. No doubt the lasting impact of 
the project will lie in injecting greater 
rigor, at the national and regional level, 
to goal-setting and strategic planning 
activities for the fi sh sector.
      
This article is based on the study, “Strategies 
and Options for Increasing and Sustaining 
Benefi ts from Fisheries and Aquaculture 
Production to Benefi t Poor Households in 
Asia”, carried out under ADB-RETA 5945, 
and implemented by the WorldFish Center 
in partnership with nine participating Asian 
countries. The project is led by Madan 
Mohan Dey and Mahfuzuddin Ahmed from 
the WorldFish Center. More project details 
are available at:
www.worldfi shcenter.org/demandsupply.


The future for fish in the food and livelihoods of the poor in Asia

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The future for fish in the food and livelihoods of the poor in Asia

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