Coastal and Oceanographic Engineering Department, University of Florida
Abstract
The effects of potential sea level rise on the shoreline and shore environment
have been briefly examined by considering the interactions between sea level rise and
relevant coastal processes. These interactions have been reviewed beginning with a
discussion of the need to reanalyze previous estimates of eustatic sea level rise and
compaction effects in water level measurement. This is followed by considerations on
sea level effects on coastal and estuarine tidal ranges, storm surge and water level
response, and interaction with natural and constructed shoreline features. The
desirability to reevaluate the well known Bruun Rule for estimating shoreline recession
has been noted. The mechanics of ground and surface water intrusion with reference to
sea level rise are then reviewed. This is followed by sedimentary processes in the
estuaries including wetland response. Finally comments are included on some probable
effects of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems.
These interactions are complex and lead to shoreline evolution (under a sea level
rise) which is highly site-specific. Models which determine shoreline change on the
basis of inundation of terrestrial topography without considering relevant coastal
processes are likely to lead to erroneous shoreline scenarios, particularly where the
shoreline is composed of erodible sedimentary material.
With some exceptions, present day knowledge of shoreline response to hydrodynamic
forcing is inadequate for long-term quantitative predictions. A series of interrelated
basic and applied research issues must be addressed in the coming decades to
determine shoreline response to sea level change with an acceptable degree of
confidence. (PDF contains 189 pages.
