Background: China will experience an overall growth and aging of its adult population in coming decades. We used a computer model to forecast the future impact of these demographic changes on coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. Methods: The CHD Policy Model is a validated state-transition, computer simulation of CHD on a national scale. China-specific CHD risk factor, incidence, case-fatality, and prevalence data were incorporated, and a CHD prediction model was generated from a Chinese cohort study and calibrated to age-specific Chinese mortality rates. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CHD were calculated using standard methods. The projected population of China aged 35–84 years was entered, and CHD events, deaths, and DALYs were simulated over 2000–2029. CHD risk factors other than age and case-fatality were held at year 2000 levels. Sensitivity analyses tested uncertainty regarding CHD mortality coding, the proportion of total deaths attributable to CHD, and case-fatality. Results: We predicted 7.8 million excess CHD events (a 69% increase) and 3.4 million excess CHD deaths (a 64% increase) in the decade 2020–2029 compared with 2000–2009. For 2030, we predicted 71% of almost one million annual CHD deaths will occur in persons ≥ 65 years old, while 67% of the growing annual burden of CHD death and disability will weigh on adults < 65 years old. Substituting alternate CHD mortality assumptions led to 17–20% more predicted CHD deaths over 2000–2029, though the pattern of increases in CHD events and deaths over time remained. Conclusion: We forecast that absolute numbers of CHD events and deaths will increase dramatically in China over 2010–2029, due to a growing and aging population alone. Recent data suggest CHD risk factor levels are increasing, so our projections may underestimate the extent of the potential CHD epidemic in China

Chen, Chung-Shiuan

Cheng, Jun

Coxson, Pamela

Goldman, Lee

Gu, Dongfeng

He, Jiang

Liu, Jing

Moran, Andrew

Zhao, Dong

PubMed

Columbia University Academic Commons

 1Supplementary Appendix  This appendix has been provided by the authors to give readers additional information about their work.  Supplement to: Moran A, Zhao D, Gu D, et al. The Future Impact of  Population Growth and Aging on Coronary Heart Disease in China: Projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China.      A1.  Population Assumptions   The US Census Bureau international database[1] was used as the source for estimates of the adult Chinese population age 35-84 years (Appendix Table 1 below)  because 1) the population estimates by age/sex for adults aged 35-84 in 2000 were quite similar to the estimates from the Chinese Census of 2000,[2] and projections of future 35 year olds (Table 2 below) were available from the US Census database and not the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.      Appendix Table 1.  Population of China aged 35-84 years in the year 2000, by age and sex, U.S. Census Bureau International Database (used in the CHD Policy Model-China). Population by Age and Sex, 2000   Midyear population Age Both sexes Male Female35-39 102,588,845 52,588,414 50,000,43140-44 82,102,517 42,636,756 39,465,76145-49 83,933,762 43,095,380 40,838,38250-54 61,044,234 31,699,045 29,345,18955-59 45,869,786 23,875,932 21,993,85460-64 40,827,108 21,152,731 19,674,37765-69 34,703,549 17,560,938 17,142,61170-74 24,986,765 12,141,707 12,845,05875-79 15,806,768 7,084,405 8,722,36380-84 7,938,300 3,212,400 4,725,90085-89 3,130,048 1,102,901 2,027,14790-94 832,031 233,206 598,825 2 Appendix Table 2.  Projected population of China aged 35 years in the years 2001-2029, by sex, U.S. Census Bureau International Database (used in the CHD Policy Model-China). YEAR Males Females 2001 12,702,898 12,055,0112002 11,611,867 10,932,0902003 12,521,827 11,735,2052004 13,764,163 13,065,1022005 13,149,400 12,564,6672006 13,236,969 12,368,1162007 12,317,627 11,634,3962008 12,073,845 11,646,0672009 11,503,094 11,132,9972010 10,587,460 10,217,9052011 10,003,553 9,626,4622012 9,461,310 9,090,6182013 9,201,776 8,851,9392014 9,437,871 9,046,0892015 9,416,390 8,979,1012016 9,086,373 8,576,8222017 12,043,428 11,430,4962018 10,044,172 9,746,4992019 9,830,067 9,448,5562020 9,867,333 9,354,9662021 10,989,583 10,448,8742022 13,056,164 12,418,3532023 12,360,313 11,697,0692024 12,598,862 11,808,4532025 13,412,158 12,202,2022026 11,011,614 10,219,6892027 10,443,485 9,641,8892028 10,168,950 9,338,9662029 10,181,505 9,300,104 A2.  Mortality rate assumptions for China in 2002. The CHD Policy Model-China defined CHD as myocardial infarction (ICD-9 410, 412 or ICD-10 I21, I22),  angina and other CHD (ICD-9 411, 413 and 414, or IC-10 I20, I23-I25), and a fixed proportion of “ill-defined” cardiovascular disease coded events and deaths (ICD-9 codes 427.1, 427.4, 427.5, 428, 429.0, 429.1, 429.2, 429.9, 440.9 or ICD-10 I47.2, I49.0, I46, I50, I51.4, I51.5, I51.9, and I70.9).  The proportion of ill-defined cardiovascular disease coded deaths apportioned to CHD under liberal, “high ill-defined cardioscular disease  3coding” and conservative, “low ill-defined coding” assumptions are listed below, according to the method developed by Lozano et al.[3]  The more conservative definition was used re-apportion ill-defined coded cardiovascular disease deaths to CHD deaths in the main model.  Appendix Table 3.  Proportion of deaths coded with ICD-9 codes 427.1, 427.4, 427.5, 428, 429.0, 429.1, 429.2, 429.9, 440.9 re-allocated toward CHD deaths (based on Lozano et al.)[3]   Target total mortality for the Chinese adults aged 35-84 years in the year 2002 were taken from the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates: 3.9 million total deaths for men and 3.3 million for women.  Age and sex-specific CHD and non-CHD mortality rates were estimated from the Chinese National Hypertension Epidemiology Follow-up Survey (CHEFS)[4] and then inflated by 30% to fit the ‘envelope’ of the WHO absolute mortality estimates.  Appendix Table 4.  Original CHD deaths rates based on CHEFS estimates and inflated CHD death rates used in the CHD Policy Model-China.  Rates are deaths/100,000 person-years.  Males Conservative (‘low ill-defined coding); main assumption Liberal  (‘high ill-defined coding) Females Conservative (‘low ill-defined coding); main assumption Liberal  (‘high ill-defined coding) 35-44 0.107 0.107 35-44 0 0 45-54 0.0395 0.4845 45-54 0.0505 0.2435 55-64 0.1545 0.8475 55-64 0.129 0.6745 65-74 0.2585 0.7795 65-74 0.2265 0.5420 75-84 0.1315 0.409 75-84 0.115 0.2780 Males Original CHEFS CHD death rates Inflated CHD death rates Females Original CHEFS CHD death rates Inflated CHD death rates 35-44 9.2 12 35-44 3.8 5 45-54 19.8 26 45-54 13.0 17 55-64 108.1 141 55-64 57.3 74 65-74 275.1 358 65-74 181.3 236 75-84 522.3 679 75-84 345.3 449  4A3.  Incidence of CHD in persons with no prior diagnosis of CHD.  CHD incidence in men and women aged 35-84 years with no prior CHD diagnosis was based on 10-year incidence rates from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study (CMCS),[5] and calibrated to fit with CHD mortality and case-fatality assumptions.  Appendix Table 5.  Calibrated incidence of CHD in persons free of CHD, the CHD Policy Model-China.  Rates are cases of CHD/100,000 person-years.   A4. Prevalence of angina and total CHD The Rose questionnaire has never been validated in a Chinese population.  Results from one study performed in United Kingdom South Asians and Europeans suggest that the Rose questionnaire, or at least a diagnosis of ‘definite angina’ defined by the questionnaire may not be reproducible across populations.[6]  We suspect that Rose questionnaire self-reported angina from the InterASIA study[7] likely included many false positives, a conclusion reached by others regarding Rose-diagnosed angina in their studies.[8, 9]  For the CHD Policy Model-China, prevalence was calibrated to match incidence, case-fatality, and mortality assumptions.  In particular, the prevalence of angina was driven predominantly by the incidence of angina (ICD-9 413) observed in the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study (CMCS, see table below). In the CMCS, incident angina was defined based on cases of angina presenting for medical attention.  The unreliable estimate for incidence in females 65-74 years old was fitted to known age trends from the Framingham Study.[10] Males Policy Model-China CHD incidence Females Policy Model-China CHD incidence 35-44 50 35-44 20 45-54 75 45-54 40 55-64 350 55-64 170 65-74 670 65-74 420 75-84 700 75-84 550  5Appendix Table 6.  Angina Incidence in the CMCS, China, 1990-2001. Sex/Age Group CMCS incidence of angina pectoris (ICD-9 413) in events/100,000 person-years  M 35-44  28.0 M 45-54 16.8 M 55-64 48.7 M 65-74 85.0 M 75-84 Not available    F 35-44 14.2 F 45-54 32.5 F 55-64 65.2 F 65-74 24.7 * F 75-84 Not available  *Unreliable, based on few events  Given the overall lower CHD incidence in China, the Policy Model-China’s  age-specific prevalence of total CHD assumed for our model for 2000 correlates well with the % prevalence of angina pectoris assumed for the CHD Policy Model-U.S. for the U.S. in 2000 and that assumed for the 1996 U.S. Burden of Disease Study (see table below).  The China Model also assumes that prevalence of angina correlates with overall CHD incidence, so that the prevalence of angina is lower in Chinese women than Chinese men.  This is also the pattern assumed by the US Model and the US Burden of Disease Study. Appendix Table 7.  Comparison of angina prevalence assumed for the CHD Policy Model-China with Rose questionnaire-diagnosed angina (InterASIA Study 2000-2001) and angina prevalence assumed for the United States for  the CHD Policy Model-USA and the U.S. Global Burden Study. Sex/Age Group InterASIA prevalence of angina (using the Rose questionnaire) CHDPM-China 2000  angina  prevalence assumption (fitted to incident angina in CMCS) CHDPM-USA 2000  angina  prevalence GBD USA 1996 angina prevalence  (approximations from Figure 4, Mathers et al.)[9] M 35-44 2.4 0.03 1.06 0.1 M 45-54 2.7 0.54 3.24 1.2 M 55-64 4.5 0.85 5.87 3.2 M 65-74 3.0 2.67 8.71 5.0 M 75-84 Not available 4.38 11.26 7.0 F 35-44 4.2 0.03 0.74 0.2 F 45-54 6.0 0.43 1.73 0.3 F 55-64 4.5 0.51 3.44 1.0 F 65-74 5.7 1.51 6.20 3.5 F 75-84 Not available 3.10 9.26 6.2   6A5. Case-fatality rate assumptions   Main CHD Policy Model-China 28-day case-fatality assumptions were estimated from pooled Beijing Sino-MONICA Study data from 1993-2004 (personal communication, Dong Zhao, MD, PhD, 2006) and the main age-specific CHD case-fatality rate assumptions were estimated from the overall rates.   Twenty-eight day case-fatality rates for ages 25-74 years in the Beijing Sino-MONICA population were 53% for Chinese men and 66% for Chinese women.  Age specific total CHD (including incident myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and angina) and ‘hard’ CHD (MI and cardiac arrest only) 28-day case fatality rates assumed for the CHD Policy Model-China are listed below.   Appendix Table 8.  Age-specific 28-day CHD mortality rates assumed for the CHD Policy Model-China *Total CHD includes angina, MI, and arrest.  Hard CHD includes MI and arrest only.   Case-fatality rates increased by 1% annually in Chinese men and women in the MONICA Beijing population during 1984-1993,[11] but have been declining since (personal communication, Dr.  Dong Zhao, 2006, see figure below).  In light of these dynamic changes, we took the conservative approach of assuming no change in age-specific CHD case-fatality, but did model the consequences of assuming higher (similar to the 1984-1993 Beijing rates) and lower (similar to Beijing rates 1999-2004) case-fatality rates. Males Policy Model-China 28-day total CHD Case-fatality* Policy Model-China 28-day hard CHD Case-fatality FemalesPolicy Model-China 28-day total CHD Case-fatality Policy Model-China 28-day hard CHD Case-fatality  35-44  0.18  0.38  35-44  0.28  0.61 45-54 0.28 0.46 45-54 0.32 0.53 55-64 0.37 0.48 55-64 0.42 0.60 65-74 0.46 0.55 65-74 0.54 0.63 75-84 0.60 0.67  75-84 0.73 0.76  7 Appendix Figure 1. CHD Case-fatality, Beijing-MONICA 1984-2004 (unpublished data)                      A6. Transition rates between risk factors   Transfers from one risk factor level to another were included to preserve the InterASIA Study proportions of the population with each risk factor level. For example, the proportion of 35-44 year old men with low (<100 mg/dL) LDL cholesterol is 0.482. For 45-54 year old men the proportion is 0.437. The shift toward higher LDL cholesterol levels is most likely caused by increasing LDL levels as people age. In higher age ranges, this trend reverses, so that by age 75-84, the proportion is 0.403. The change in the upper age ranges is most likely due to a more complex array of factors, including the fact that people with higher risk are more likely to die. Annual transfer rates between risk factor levels were calculated to reduce the low risk population from 0.482 to 0.437 over 10 years, without regard to the reason for the change, but taking into account the effect of the Model’s CHD incidence and non-CHD death rates.  01020304050607080901001984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020022004Men 25-74Women 25-74 8A7.  Durations of non-fatal CHD sequelae: angina and congestive heart failure  For incident cases of angina and congestive heart failure, we assumed the age-specific mean durations assumed in 2004 by the WHO for the WPRO region, 90% of which comprises China (table below, personal communication, Colin Mathers, PhD, August, 2008).    Appendix Table 9.  Durations of sequelae: angina pectoris (AP) and congestive heart failure (CHF) assumed for the WPR B1 region, the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2004. WPR B1 2004   AP CHF age sex Duration (years) Duration (years) 0 male 42.3827 05 male 33.2462 015 male 25.8521 030 male 16.375 6.376445 male 10.9901 4.057260 male 7.9362 2.586770 male 5.2153 1.902180 male 2.7979 1.47080 female 48.0652 05 female 38.8578 015 female 30.4496 030 female 20.2403 10.445845 female 13.1913 7.009160 female 8.6265 4.293270 female 5.3842 2.706880 female 2.8748 1.9002  We do not assume remission from the anginal state in our China model both because rates of revascularization in the stable angina population in China are not well known, and because clinical trials suggest that patients with angina continue to have symptoms after medical or procedural intervention.[12]   We specifically state that we assume no remission from angina or heart failure.     9Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the contributions of the participants and investigators responsible for the China Multi-provincial Cohort Study, the International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia Study, the Sino-MONICA Study, the China National Hypertension Survey Epidemiology Follow-up Study, and the Bridging the Gap in Coronary Heart Disease Secondary Prevention Study, without which this project would not be possible.   We would like to thank Dr. Colin Mathers of the Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization for teaching us the methods and assumptions employed in calculating disability-adjusted life years.    Sources of Funding Supported by a grant from the Flight Attendants Medical Research Institute, a grant from the Swanson Family Fund to the University of California, San Francisco (to Lee Goldman), and a grant from the William J. Matheson Foundation to Columbia University (to Andrew Moran). These funding bodies had no role in study design, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the manuscript, or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.  References 1. International Database, U.S. Census Bureau. [http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html] 2. Goodkind DM: China's missing children: the 2000 census underreporting surprise. Population Studies 2004, 58(3):281-295. 3. Lozano R, Murray C.J.L., Lopez, A.D., and Satoh, T.: Miscoding and misclassification of ischaemic heart disease mortality.  Global Programme on  10Evidence for Health Policy Working Paper No. 12.  . Geneva, World Health Organization 2001. 4. He J, Gu D, Wu X, Reynolds K, Duan X, Yao C, Wang J, Chen CS, Chen J, Wildman RP et al: Major causes of death among men and women in China. N Engl J Med 2005, 353(11):1124-1134. 5. Liu J, Hong Y, D'Agostino RB, Sr., Wu Z, Wang W, Sun J, Wilson PW, Kannel WB, Zhao D: Predictive value for the Chinese population of the Framingham CHD risk assessment tool compared with the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study. JAMA 2004, 291(21):2591-2599. 6. Fischbacher CM, Bhopal R, Unwin N, White M, Alberti KG: The performance of the Rose angina questionnaire in South Asian and European origin populations: a comparative study in Newcastle, UK. International Journal of Epidemiology 2001, 30(5):1009-1016. 7. He J, Neal B, Gu D, Suriyawongpaisal P, Xin X, Reynolds R, MacMahon S, Whelton PK: International collaborative study of cardiovascular disease in Asia: design, rationale, and preliminary results. Ethn Dis 2004, 14(2):260-268. 8. Garber CE, Carleton RA, Heller GV: Comparison of "Rose Questionnaire Angina" to exercise thallium scintigraphy: different findings in males and females. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 1992, 45(7):715-720. 9. Mathers CD, Truelson, T., Begg, S., and Satoh, T.: Global burden of ischemic heart diseae in the year 2000.  Global Burden of Disease 2000 Working Paper. Geneva, World Health Organization 2004. 10. Framingham Heart Study CD-ROM: Department of Health and Human Services; 2005. 11. Tunstall-Pedoe H, Kuulasmaa K, Mahonen M, Tolonen H, Ruokokoski E, Amouyel P: Contribution of trends in survival and coronary-event rates to changes in  11coronary heart disease mortality: 10-year results from 37 WHO MONICA project populations. Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease. Lancet 1999, 353(9164):1547-1557. 12. Weintraub WS, Spertus JA, Kolm P, Maron DJ, Zhang Z, Jurkovitz C, Zhang W, Hartigan PM, Lewis C, Veledar E et al: Effect of PCI on quality of life in patients with stable coronary disease. N Engl J Med 2008, 359(7):677-687. 

The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

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The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

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