Modern high-input agriculture has produced great increases in crop yields but social

and environmental costs have also been high. Over the past decades, sustainability

has become more and more a guiding principle in agriculture. In this context, organic

farming became recognised by farmers, policymakers and consumers as one of the

possibilities for the farmer in a more sustainable way (De Cock L., 2005)

Warlop, F.

English

Organic Eprints

182Can models be useful for deciding to convert to organic fruit growing ? An introduction to the discussionWarlop F.1AbstractModern high-input agriculture has produced great increases in crop yields but social and environmental costs have also been high. Over the past decades, sustainability has become more and more a guiding principle in agriculture. In this context, organic farming became recognised by farmers, policymakers and consumers as one of the possibilities for the farmer in a more sustainable way (De Cock L., 2005).Keywords:  decision tool, conversion, fruit growing, multi-attributes IntroductionMulti-attribute  decision  models  (MADM)  are  useful  tools  in  the  scientific  and professional context, for they can help end-users (farmers among a wide variety of users) in taking decisions for complex problems or situations, without working under quantitative  and  long-term  basis.  Literature  attests  that  a  variety  of  agricultural problems  can  be  solved  with  computer  modelling,  especially  in  case  of  perennial crops such as fruit trees, with long-term management practices (Pacek et al., 2005). Alvisi et  al.  (1992)  developed  MULTIFRU  for  decision  making  in  orchard management.Various  models  have  been  developed  for  MADM  applications  (Electre,  Hiview, Prime..., Belton & Stewart, 2002), but it seems that DEX-i has been more commonly used  for  agricultural  purpose.  The  main  characteristic  of  the  DEX  method  is  its capability to deal with qualitative variables.Marko Bohanec for Institute of Mathematics of Maribor has been the conceiver of DEX-i (formerly DEX, as for ‘Decision EXpert’) whereas Crtomir Rozman is one of the agri-economists  that  developed  agricultural  applications,  especially  in  organic farming.Literature compiled on decision tools for helping fruit growers to convert to organic farming  drove  me  to  a  significant  number  of  papers  giving  theory  and  sociology aspects of transition to organic (Acs et al., 2006), but Rozman’s papers gave means to  elaborate  a  qualitative  tool  with  hierarchization  of  various  determinants,  from technical to social including economical.  We  aim  to  gain  know-how  in  use  of  DEX-i  programmation  and  understanding  its construction by starting from a simple question : “is my orchard suited for organic farming ?”. MADM will help achieving a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) under various scenarios.The  model  should  in  a  second  step  be  validated  through  field  assessments  and interviews  of  growers  that  already  experienced  transition  to  organic,  in  order  to compare the model results with the real situation of orchards.1 Warlop François, Research Group for Organic Farming, francois.warlop@grab.fr Archived at http://orgprints.org/13669/183Can models be useful for deciding to convert to organic fruit growing ? An introduction to the discussionWarlop F.1AbstractModern high-input agriculture has produced great increases in crop yields but social and environmental costs have also been high. Over the past decades, sustainability has become more and more a guiding principle in agriculture. In this context, organic farming became recognised by farmers, policymakers and consumers as one of the possibilities for the farmer in a more sustainable way (De Cock L., 2005).Keywords:  decision tool, conversion, fruit growing, multi-attributes IntroductionMulti-attribute  decision  models  (MADM)  are  useful  tools  in  the  scientific  and professional context, for they can help end-users (farmers among a wide variety of users) in taking decisions for complex problems or situations, without working under quantitative  and  long-term  basis.  Literature  attests  that  a  variety  of  agricultural problems  can  be  solved  with  computer  modelling,  especially  in  case  of  perennial crops such as fruit trees, with long-term management practices (Pacek et al., 2005). Alvisi et  al.  (1992)  developed  MULTIFRU  for  decision  making  in  orchard management.Various  models  have  been  developed  for  MADM  applications  (Electre,  Hiview, Prime..., Belton & Stewart, 2002), but it seems that DEX-i has been more commonly used  for  agricultural  purpose.  The  main  characteristic  of  the  DEX  method  is  its capability to deal with qualitative variables.Marko Bohanec for Institute of Mathematics of Maribor has been the conceiver of DEX-i (formerly DEX, as for ‘Decision EXpert’) whereas Crtomir Rozman is one of the agri-economists  that  developed  agricultural  applications,  especially  in  organic farming.Literature compiled on decision tools for helping fruit growers to convert to organic farming  drove  me  to  a  significant  number  of  papers  giving  theory  and  sociology aspects of transition to organic (Acs et al., 2006), but Rozman’s papers gave means to  elaborate  a  qualitative  tool  with  hierarchization  of  various  determinants,  from technical to social including economical.  We  aim  to  gain  know-how  in  use  of  DEX-i  programmation  and  understanding  its construction by starting from a simple question : “is my orchard suited for organic farming ?”. MADM will help achieving a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) under various scenarios.The  model  should  in  a  second  step  be  validated  through  field  assessments  and interviews  of  growers  that  already  experienced  transition  to  organic,  in  order  to compare the model results with the real situation of orchards.1 Warlop François, Research Group for Organic Farming, francois.warlop@grab.fr Indeed, we may consider many failures of transition to organic farming because  -  orchard was not adapted, -  grower was not motivated enough, -  financial situation did not permit sustainable management -  ... Also, many fruit growers may refuse to take the risk to go organic although their situation would deserve it.  Theoretical  papers  and  models  established  5  types  of  farmers  in  respect  to  their behaviour face to organic farming : -  the committed conventional -  the pragmatic conventional -  the environment-conscious but not organic -  the pragmatic organic -  the committed organic     (Darnhofer et al., 2005) Growers suffer (in France at least) from a lack of technical support, because of its cost. Asking advisors about the relevance of transition requires a considerable effort and time to assess the CBA of transitioning.Our proposition is not to give an exact estimation of “what if”, but to give headlines and  indications  of  major  factors  of  risks  and  bottlenecks  if  there  are.  Those indications  may  help  the  grower  to  improve  the  plot  situation,  before  considering again the transition and running the model. We may not be able to be more accurate in the answers to be brought to the end-user. The aim of the tool is as far as possible to avoid failures and possible discredit of organic farming. Official transition should indeed be anticipated and prepared with a field but also a “moral” part.A  complementary  answer  to  the  end-user  is  the  AHP  (Analytical  Hierarchical Process) method, which gives quantitative evaluation of different scenarios. Pacek and Rozman also used AHP (Expert Choice© program) in evaluation of Slovenian organic farms (2005, 2006) and concluded on the complementary contributions of DEX-i and AHP.Material and Methods The basic approach of the DEX methodology is a multi-objective decomposition of the problem : the decision problem is decomposed into smaller and less complex decision  problems  (sub-problems).  In  this  way,  a  decision  model  is  obtained consisting of attributes which represent individual sub-problems. The attributes are then  organised  hierarchically,  and  connected  to  the  utility  functions.  These  utility functions  evaluate  each  individual  attribute  with  respect  to  their  immediate descendants objective in the hierarchy. Instead of numerical variables, which typically constitute  quantitative  models,  DEX-i  uses  qualitative  variables.  Values  are represented by words rather than numbers. Expert decision rules (“if then” type) are used to evaluate utility functions, in an empirical manner.All  determinants  have  to  be  listed,  then  sorted  according  to  their  relevance  and potential weight and impact on the final decision. Considering that all factors can’t be valuably  processed  by  the  model,  less  relevant  and  determining  factors  will  be removed ; others will be weighed and organised under a hierarchical tree thanks to decision  rules.  Each  factor  gets  a  value  according  to  the  experts  knowledge  and estimation.Archived at http://orgprints.org/13669/184ResultsMain determinants listed have been organised under three major parts, ie ecological, technical  and economical.  The  figure  below  shows  current  organisation  of  the  architecture,  susceptible  of changes according to expert proposals.  a) ecological suitability Main biotic and abiotic factors affecting orchard’s behaviour are considered.Extreme climatic conditions (drought and high rainfall) are considered to have impact on pests (moths, aphids) or diseases (cryptogams), respectively.Soil however was not maintained, although crucial in organic farming ; indeed, its structure  and  characteristics  may  not  easily  be  linked  to  suitability  to  organic management.Orchard’s  vigour  and  susceptibility  has  been  connected  to  this  ecological  part  in order  to  lighten  the  technical  pool.  Vigour  is  connected  to  pest  attraction  and dependence  to  water  and  nutrients  :  an  optimal  growth  has  to  be  established  to guarantee yield without creating risky unbalance.Biodiversity in and around the orchard is determinant, but its functionality and real influence (on natural pest control especially) is not measurable : therefore, only a rough description of wild and cultivated surrounding flora can be proposed. Potential pathogenic inoculum sources have been added.  b) technical suitability Mainly current practices, damage levels and farmer’s expertise are considered here.We  focused  on  major  pests  and  diseases  for  apple,  although  others  may  be significant, at a local scale, as described.  c) economical suitability In most of cases, economics may keep prevailing among elements to be considered by the grower : if CBA is not favourable, conversion will not take place even if the orchard is well adapted to organic farming.Parameters so far considered are :  -  Marketing facilities, on the farm or on adapted selling channels, with attractive cultivars for specific customers.-  Conversion costs, linked to the necessity of investment for specific machine for organic management : soil mowing, sprayer, ... -  Complementary crops : these should be useful to avoid bankrupt in case of 1-year failure on the orchard.Some factors should not be considered, as -  not significant as compared to other ones -  irrelevant in respect to organic farming specificity (frost, hail risks) Expert decision rules will help ranking attributes and putting weights on each factor.Those  rules  have  to  be  discussed  by  many  experts  (including  growers)  to  get stronger and more reliable.Archived at http://orgprints.org/13669/185Example  below  shows  the  current  decision  rule  (last  column  on  the  right)  when combining  other  factors  together.  Final  expert  decision  may  be  arbitrary  in  some extent and should be considered with precaution, especially in case of positive final answer.Discussion Current  step  consists  in  submitting  and  discussing  the  tree  organisation  and hierarchy to various experts in Europe, in order to gather and mix their knowledge and reflections about relevance and reliance of the tool.  UN-FAO recently agreed to consider organic farming as the most sustainable model for future small-scale agriculture, in Europe and throughout the world. As long as advisory services remains deficient, models for decision making will be of interest to spare time and propose answers to end-users.  References Acs S., P.B.M. Berentsen, R.B.M. Huirne, 2005. Modelling conventional and organic farming : a literature review. NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, Vol 53, No 1 Alvisi  F.,  C.  Malagoli,  D.  Regazzi,  1992.  Multifru  –  Multiple-criteria  decision  making  for orchard management. ISHS Acta Horticulturae 1992 : 313, 1 Belton V., J.T. Stewart, 2002. Multiple Objectives Decision Analysis. An Integrated Approach. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell MA, USA Burton M.D., D. Rigby, T. Young, 1999. Analysis of the determinants of adoption of organic horticulture techniques in the UK. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 50(1), pp. 48-63 Darnhofer I., W. Schneeberger, B. Freyer, 2005. Converting or not converting to organic farming in Austria : farmers type and their rationale. Agriculture and Human Values,22:39-52De Cock L., 2005. Determinants of organic farming conversion. Proceedings of the XIth EAAE Congress, "The Future of Rural Europe in the Global Agri-Food System", Copenhagen, Denmark , 24-27 August 2005 Mazzeto F., R. Bonera, 2003. MEACROS : a tool for multi-criteria evaluation of alternative cropping systems. Agricultural systems, 76, pp. 19-38 Pazek K., C. Rozman, F. Cejvanovic, V. Par, A. Borec, D. Majkovic, J. Turk, 2005. Multi-attribute decision model for orchard renewal – case study in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Agricultura 3 : 13-20 Pazek K., C. Rozman, A. Borec, J. Turk, D. Majkovic, M. Bavec, F. Bavec, 2006. The use of multi-criteria models for decision support on organic farms. Biological Agriculture and Horticulture, vol. 24, pp. 73-89 Rozman  C.,  K.  Pazek,  F.  Bavec,  M.  Bavec,  J.  Turk,  D.  Majkovic,  2006.  A  multi-criteria analysis  of  spelt  food  processing  alternatives  on  small  organic  farms.  Journal  of Sustainable Agriculture, vol. 28(2), pp. 159-179 Tiwari  D.N.,  R.  Loof,  G.N.  Paudyal,  1999.  Environmental-economic  decision-making  in lowland  irrigated  agriculture  using  multi-criteria  analysis  techniques.  Agricultural systems, 60:99-112 Archived at http://orgprints.org/13669/

Can models be useful for deciding to convert to organic fruit growing ? An introduction to the discussion

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